Technology Assessment in Support of the Presidential Vision for Space Exploration Charles R. Weisbin, William Lincoln, Joe Mrozinski, Hook Hua, Sofia Merida, Kacie Shelton, Virgil Adumitroaie, Jason Derleth, and Robert Silberg Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 4800 Oak Grove Dr., Pasadena, CA 91 109 Abstract This paper discusses the process and results of technology assessment in support of the United States Vision for Space Exploration of the Moon, Mars and Beyond. The paper begins by reviewing the Presidential Vision: a major endeavor in building systems of systems. It discusses why we wish ta return to the Moon, and the exploration architecture for getting there safely, sustaining a presence, and safely returning. Next, a methodology for optimal technology investment is proposed with discussion of inputs including a capability hierarchy, mission importance weightings, available resource profiles as a functioln of time, likelihoods of development success, and an objective function. A temporal optimization formulation is offered, and the investment recommendations presented along with sensitivity analyses. Key questions addressed are sensitivity of budget allocations to cost uncertainties, reduction in available budget levels, and shifting funding within constraints imposed by mission timeline. I. Presidential Vision for Space Exploration: A Major Endeavor in Building Systems of Systems (1) On January 14, 2004, some 31 years after a human being last set foot on the lunar surface, President Bush announced a new Vision for Space Exploration which will pick up where Apollo left off on the Molon and propel us onward to Mars. It forms the foundation ofNASA’s plans for its next era. The Vision calls for the existing fleet of space shuttles to be used to complete the International Space Station (ISS), and then retired in 2010. The shuttle’s replacement, the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), will be deployed by 2012 (target 201 11, and will carry astronauts to the Moon by 2020 (target 2018) in preparation for human missions to Mars. The CEV architecture is also compatible with missions to the ISS and ultimately to Mars. 11. Why Do We Return to the Moon The Moon will help us learn how to live and work for extended periods of time on a cold, dusty world without a breathable atmosphere, without Earth’s atmospheric pressure or protective magnetic field, with much less than Earth’s gravity, and with regolith up to ten meters deep. As a test-bed analog for Mars, the Moon will enable us to develop and demonstrate technologies for coping with such a world. It will allow us to determine the integrated effects on human biology of radiation and low gravity, and to develop countermeasures. It will provide an opportunity for meeting such challenges as planetary protection (avoiding contamination of other worlds with organisms transported from Earth) and mitigating electrostatically charged dust. All of these issues are key to missions to Mars. Studying lunar regolith, rocks, and craters will not only reveal the character and history of the Moon, but aIso provide insights into the history of Earth, the meteoric bombardment of the inner solar system and its effect on the development of life on Earth, and the evolution of the sun (Apollo data hint at nuclear processes not predicted by current models). And on a practical level, geological research forms the basis for assessing lunar resources. Astronomers will be able to take advantage of the very stable viewing along the Moon’s spin axis to conduct ultra deep surveys of the very early universe with long-baseline interferometers, and also with liquid-mirror telescopes for which lunar gravity is uniquely enabling. ILL System of Systems Architecture for Travel to the Moon and Return to Earth The architecture is one in which the crew is launched separately from the lunar lander, Earth- departure stage, and other cargo. This enables the crew to ride a smaller, safer rocket. First, the Lunar Heavy Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) lifts the Earth-Departure Stage (EDS), with the Lunar Surface-Access Module (LSAM) attached, to low-Earth orbit (LEO), where they are capable of remaining for up to 30 days until the crew is launched. The CaLV launch system is largely derived from the shuttle. It consists of a large external tank with five shuttle main engines on its back.