Proceedings of the 6 th Asia-Pacific Structural Engineering and Construction Conference (APSEC 2006), 5 – 6 September 2006, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia C-78 PREDICTING THE PERFORMANCE OF TRADITIONAL GENERAL CONTRACT PROJECTS: A NEURAL NETWORK BASED APPROACH Mohamad Zin, R. 1 , Mansur, S.A. 2 , Bakri, A. 3 and Caren, T. C. L. 4 Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Skudai, Malaysia E-mail: 1 roslizin@utm.my, 2 shaiful@fka.utm.my, 3 ahmadon@utm.my, 4 caren@yahoo.com Abstract: Several studies had shown that many project managers are facing difficulties in predicting the performance of Traditional General Contract (TGC) projects. This is due to the fact that there are many factors that affect TGC project success. This paper presents the TGS project success factors that have been identified. In addition, a model to predict the performance of TGC project based on time is also described. Through literature research, a total of forty-four factors affecting TGC project success had been established. The degree of importance for these factors was determined through questionnaire survey. The outcome of the survey formed a basis for the development of the project performance prediction model. The best model was found to be a multi-layer back-propagation neural network consists of eight input nodes, five hidden nodes and three output nodes. The model was tested by using data from nine new projects. The results showed that the mean error for this prediction model is relatively low. The model enables all parties involved in TGC projects to predict and ensure that their project performance is within the time constraints. Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Project performance, Traditional General Contract 1. INTRODUCTION Construction projects are intricate, time-consuming undertakings. The total development of a project normally consists of several phases requiring a diverse range of specialized services. Traditionally, field construction is not begun until the architect-engineer has completed and finalized the design. This sequence is still predominant in the industry and is referred to as the Traditional General Contract (TGC) procedure. It is possible to reduce the total construction time by starting the construction before completing the design of the entire project. Measurements of performance provide management with invaluable feedback to guide daily decision making and they become more competent. On-time completion means that the job finished as it was scheduled. However, time and budget measurements frequently come too late to guide daily management decision making. Studies had shown that project managers always encounter difficulties to predict the performance of TGC project. They need the skills to evaluate the factors that affect TGC project success. Under these circumstances the study described in this paper tries to establish the factors affecting project performance and develop a model that can be used to predict the performance of TGC projects from the time aspect. 2. FACTORS AFFECTING PROJECT PERFORMANCE Several empirical studies relevant to the identification of factors influencing project performance were reviewed. Pinto and Slevin (1988) proposed 10 factors including project mission, top management support, project schedule/plans, client consultation, personnel,