Profiling stranger rapists: Linking offence behaviour to previous criminal histories using a regression model David Scott, 1 Ian Lambie, 2, * David Henwood 1 & Russell Lamb 1 1 Criminal Profiling Unit, New Zealand Police, & 2 Department of Psychology, University of Auckland, New Zealand Abstract International research has suggested that rapist criminal histories can be predicted from certain offence behaviours. Ninety-six solved stranger rape cases were examined to determine if there was consistency in a New Zealand sample. Rapist behaviours during the offence were compared with criminal convictions prior to the rape. The primary statistical technique used was likelihood ratio stepwise binary logistic regression. Predictive utility of the results was limited, due to significant correlation coefficients between the criminal history variables. Nevertheless, the current study reflected the general findings of similar descriptive international research. These outcomes were: the majority of stranger rapists had prior criminal convictions, and the majority of those convictions were for property offences not sexual offending. Furthermore, ethnic minorities were over-represented among the offenders, and the majority of stranger rapists started committing their first known rapes in their mid- to late 20s. Finally, methodological difficulties were encountered during this study. This highlights the need to refine existing statistical approaches to predictive offender-based research. Keywords Profiling; rapists; criminal convictions; offence behaviour; prediction Introduction Rape is one of the most brutal criminal behaviours known in our society. It can instil fear into a community that appears to subside only with the arrest and conviction of the assailant (Hazelwood & Burgess, 1995). Regardless of whether or not the offender is caught, the adverse psychosocial effects on the victim may be profound (Koss & Heslet, 1992; Resnick et al., 1993; Riggs, 2000). Women and children are far more likely to be raped than adult males and offenders are more likely to be known to their victims than they are to be strangers (Finkelhor, Hotaling, Lewis & Smith, 1990; Groth & Birnbaum, 1979; Pino & Meier, 1999). Same-sex attacks do occur; however, the offence is neither as common nor as visible as male rapists who assault women and children (King, Coxell & Mezey, 2000; Scarce, 1997). *Corresponding author: Ian Lambie, PhD, Director of Clinical Psychology Training and Senior Lecturer, Department of Psychology, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand. Tel: 64 9 373 7599 ext. 85012. Fax: 64 9 373 7450. E-mail: i.lambie@auckland.ac.nz Journal of Sexual Aggression (November 2006), Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 265  275 ISSN 1355-2600 print/1742-6545 online # 2006 National Organisation for the Treatment of Abusers DOI: 10.1080/13552600601090329