Migration and Recession: Polish Migrants in Post-Celtic Tiger Ireland by Torben Krings, Alicja Bobek, Elaine Moriarty, Justyna Salamonska and James Wickham Trinity College Dublin Sociological Research Online, Volume 14, Issue 2, < http://www.socresonline.org.uk/14/2/9.html> doi:10.5153/sro.1927 Received: 11 May 2009 Accepted: 26 May 2009 Published: 30 May 2009 Abstract In this paper we explore the impact of the current economic downturn on Polish migrants in the Irish labour market. Ireland appears to be well suited to study the impact of the recession on intra-European migration. The country has not only experienced large-scale inward migration from the new EU Member states (NMS) in recent years, but has also been severely hit by a recession. At times of an economic crisis, questions have begun to be asked about the future intentions of migrants. By drawing on an ongoing Qualitative Panel Study on the experience of Polish migrants in the Irish labour market, we argue that simplistic assumptions about migrants leaving the country 'when times are getting tough' are misplaced. No doubt some NMS migrants will leave because of the worsening economic situation and new opportunities elsewhere. As East- West migration has adopted a more temporary and circular character facilitated by a free movement regime, NMS migrants have the opportunity to move on elsewhere at times of a downturn. At the same time, many Polish migrants are 'here to stay', for the moment at least. This is for at least three reasons. A clear majority of NMS migrants remains in employment, in spite of the downturn. Furthermore, even if migrants should lose their jobs, welfare state arrangements in the host country offer some protection against destitution. Moreover, the decision to migrate, and consequently to stay or move on, is not just reached on the basis of economic considerations alone. Particularly social networks are of importance in sustaining the migration process relatively independent from short-term economic change, including an economic downturn. Keywords: Recession, East-West Migration, Free Movement, Ireland, Poland Introduction 1.1 The world economy has been hit by a global recession, the first of its kind since the 1970s and possibly the worst since the late 1920s. Not only has the international trade of capital, goods and services slowed down, but also the international movement of people. In countries such as the UK and Ireland, the most important form of labour migration in recent years has been East-West migration, particularly since EU enlargement in 2004. How has this intra-European mobility been affected by the current economic downturn? To explore this, we will focus on Ireland's recent migration experience. Ireland appears to be well suited to study the impact of the recession on intra-European migration. The country has not only experienced large-scale inward migration from the new EU Member States (NMS) in recent years, but has also been severely hit by a recession. At this time of an economic crisis, questions have begun to be asked about the future intentions of migrants. Some media outlets increasingly promote the view that NMS migrants are on their way out, fostered by headlines such as 'Up to 1,300 Poles leaving Ireland every week' (Irish Independent 8 December 2008) and '3,000 Poles leave Ireland every month' (Sunday Tribune 18 January 2009). 1.2 In this paper we take a different view. By drawing on an ongoing Qualitative Panel Study on the experience of Polish migrants in the Irish labour market, we argue that the decision to 'stay or go' is more complex than any simplistic assumptions about 'Poles going home' allow for. It is entirely possible that some NMS migrants will leave the country because of the worsening economic situation. As 'free movers' (Favell 2008), Polish and other NMS migrants have the opportunity to move on elsewhere at times of a downturn. At the same time, however, there is only limited evidence to suggest that the current downturn will trigger large-scale outward migration from Ireland. This is for at least three reasons. A clear majority of NMS migrants remain in employment, in spite of the downturn. Furthermore, even if migrants should lose their jobs, welfare state arrangements in Ireland offer some protection against destitution. Moreover, the decision to migrate is not just reached on the basis of economic considerations alone. Social networks are