The Primacy of Climate Change for Sustainable International Tourism C. Michael Hall, 1,2,3,4 * Daniel Scott 5 and Stefan Gössling 6,7 1 University of Canterbury, New Zealand 2 University of Oulu, Finland 3 University of Eastern Finland, Finland 4 University of Johannesburg, South Africa 5 University of Waterloo, Canada 6 Lund University, Sweden 7 Western Norway Research Institute, Norway ABSTRACT International tourism is portrayed by many agencies and governments as a significant contribu- tor to sustainable development strategies. The economic impacts of international tourism are undoubtedly substantial; however, they need to be framed within a broader understanding of im- pacts throughout the tourism system. Emissions from tourism and their contribution to climate change therefore set a potentially major challenge for the sustainability of international tourism. Following an examination of the current and forecast growth of emissions from international tourism and the policies and strategies of lead bodies, industry and national governments, tour- ism is seen as grounded in a pro-growth paradigm that offers no hope within the foreseeable future of absolute reductions in emissions. Given the potential implications of this finding, it is concluded that a significant reassessment is required of the potential benefits of tourism for sustainable development. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Received 5 December 2012; revised 10 December 2012; accepted 3 January 2013 Keywords: green growth; aviation; greenhouse gas emissions; tourism policy; developing countries Introduction T OURISM PRESENTS SIGNIFICANT SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICY DILEMMAS. INTERNATIONAL TOURISM IS PROJECTED to nearly double by 2030 (UNWTO, 2011). It is a major source of foreign exchange for many countries and is widely perceived by governments, supranational institutions and NGOs as a relatively benign means of economic development and employment generation (UNWTO, 2006). Yet it is increasingly recognized that tourism is a significant contributor to undesirable socio-economic and environmental change, including biodiversity loss and climate change (Hall, 2010a; Hall and Lew, 2009; Scott et al., 2012a, 2012b). Tourism’s role in sustainable development highlights the inherent contradictions and complexities of translating notions of sustainability into post-carbon political realities, and the centrality of climate change as a sustainable *Correspondence to: C. Michael Hall, University of Canterbury, New Zealand. E-mail: michael.hall@canterbury.ac.nz Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Sustainable Development Sust. Dev. 21, 112–121 (2013) Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/sd.1562