The Effect of Sex Offender Registries on Recidivism: Evidence from a Natural Experiment Jillian B. Carr Texas A&M University October 8, 2014 Abstract US states maintain sex offender registries in an effort to reduce sex crimes and recidivism. This paper examines the effectiveness of sex offender registries using administrative data from North Carolina. To estimate the causal effect, I exploit variation induced by the fact that small differences in the date of initial registry meant that some offenders were removed from the registry after 10 years, while others stayed on it. Regression discontinuity estimates suggest that this increase in registry length does not decrease sex crime recidivism as intended; it may however, reduce an offender’s probability of recidivating with a court procedure-related infraction. I would like to thank Mark Hoekstra, Jason Lindo, Johanna Lahey, Jonathan Meer, Paul Heaton and Jennifer L. Doleac for their helpful comments on this paper as well as seminar participants at Texas A&M. All errors are my own.