Predictors of numeracy performance in national testing programs: insights from the longitudinal study of Australian children Colin Carmichael*, Amy MacDonald and Laura McFarland- Piazza Charles Sturt University, Australia This article is based on an exploratory study that examines factors which predict children’s performance on the numeracy component of the Australian National Assessment Program— Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN). Utilizing an ecological theoretical model, this study exam- ines child, home and school variables which may enable or constrain NAPLAN numeracy per- formance. Data are presented from a nationally-representative sample of 2450 children participating in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). Twenty-four children, home and school variables are tested as predictors of performance on the Year 3 NAPLAN numeracy assessment. The analysis includes an investigation of bivariate relationships between the outcome variable and each of the predictor variables. Following this a series of linear regression models are used to analyse the relation between child, home and school-related variables and NAPLAN numeracy performance. The results support the ecological model and point to the importance of a supportive home–school relationship on children’s numeracy performance. Introduction Over the past decade, the process of establishing accountability in schools has grown in prominence, and high-stakes national and international testing is now an educa- tional phenomenon regularly seen in countries around the world (Smeed, 2010). In fact, many countries use testing for tracking and for selecting students for admission into academic secondary schools or universities (Rotberg, 2006). Two of the nations with the longest histories of standardized high stakes testing and reporting of student achievement include the United Kingdom and the United States (Polesel et al., 2012). In the United Kingdom, in order to achieve government educational policies centred on meeting public and government demands for educational accountability and standards monitoring, the government has implemented programs of testing stu- dents and publishing these data (Rowe, 2000). Similarly, in the United States, the annual testing in all states under the Bush government’s No Child Left Behind Act (2001) has led to increased standardized testing of students across the nation (Smeed, 2010). The process of national standardized testing in Australia is a relatively recent *Corresponding author. School of Education, Charles Sturt University, PO Box 789, Albury, New South Wales, Australia 2640. Email: ccarmichael@csu.edu.au © 2013 British Educational Research Association British Educational Research Journal Vol. 40, No. 4, August 2014, pp. 637–659 DOI: 10.1002/berj.3104