Hindawi Publishing Corporation
he Scientiic World Journal
Volume 2013, Article ID 580606, 9 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/580606
Research Article
Forecasting Optimal Solar Energy Supply in Jiangsu Province
(China): A Systematic Approach Using Hybrid of Weather and
Energy Forecast Models
Xiuli Zhao, Henry Asante Antwi, and Ethel Yiranbon
School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu 212013, China
Correspondence should be addressed to Xiuli Zhao; asanteantwi2@gmail.com
Received 17 October 2013; Accepted 21 November 2013
Academic Editors: R. Pedicini and P. Pei
Copyright © 2013 Xiuli Zhao et al. his is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License,
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
he idea of aggregating information is clearly recognizable in the daily lives of all entities whether as individuals or as a group, since
time immemorial corporate organizations, governments, and individuals as economic agents aggregate information to formulate
decisions. Energy planning represents an investment-decision problem where information needs to be aggregated from credible
sources to predict both demand and supply of energy. To do this there are varying methods ranging from the use of portfolio
theory to managing risk and maximizing portfolio performance under a variety of unpredictable economic outcomes. he future
demand for energy and need to use solar energy in order to avoid future energy crisis in Jiangsu province in China require energy
planners in the province to abandon their reliance on traditional, “least-cost,” and stand-alone technology cost estimates and instead
evaluate conventional and renewable energy supply on the basis of a hybrid of optimization models in order to ensure efective and
reliable supply. Our task in this research is to propose measures towards addressing optimal solar energy forecasting by employing
a systematic optimization approach based on a hybrid of weather and energy forecast models. Ater giving an overview of the
sustainable energy issues in China, we have reviewed and classiied the various models that existing studies have used to predict
the inluences of the weather inluences and the output of solar energy production units. Further, we evaluate the performance of
an exemplary ensemble model which combines the forecast output of two popular statistical prediction methods using a dynamic
weighting factor.
1. Introduction
China as a growing economy has high demand for electricity
and nonrenewable sources of energy have been documented
to have low capacity for supporting future social and eco-
nomic development of China [1]. here is high future demand
for energy and a need to explore sustainable alternatives such
as the use solar energy in order to avoid future Chinese
energy crisis. According to Yang [2] the conceptualization of
renewable energy and its sustainability form the foundation
of emerging agendas on the future sources and use of energy
and energy planning in China as a whole. Solar power,
wind power, thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power
are categorized as renewable energy. From sustainability
perspective, diferent sources of power have diferent life
cycle costs, which further contribute to the diferences in
prioritization of the diferent renewable power sources [3],
although life cycle costs of nuclear power may be lower
compared to life cycle costs of solar power and wind power,
for example, nuclear plants are exposed to risks of nuclear and
radiation emissions that have negative long term impacts on
the plants and animals. Solar power has advantage of lower
maintenance costs over a long period of time [4].
In China, the alignment of sustainability goals and contri-
bution to socioeconomic development recognize solar power
to have the lowest forms of environmental pollution and the
lowest level of carbon footprint. For this reason solar power is
perceived to be more competitive in China and more research
and development have been targeted at improving innovation
of solar power in China (at least with the last half of the
century) [5]. Apart from its superiority in environmental
sustainability goals, solar energy has a higher capacity to