ORIGINAL PAPER Statistical Model to Study the Effect of Agriculture Crop Residue Burning on Healthy Subjects R. Agarwal 1 *, A. Awasthi 1 , S. K. Mital 1 , N. Singh 1 and P. K. Gupta 2 1 Thapar University, Patiala, India 2 CSIR-National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi 110012, India Received: 02 June 2013 / Accepted: 27 August 2013 Ó Metrology Society of India 2013 Abstract: Pulmonary function test (PFT) values of 50 healthy subjects and levels of pollutants like suspended particulate matter (SPM), PM 10 , PM 2.5 in ambient air were continually investigated from February 2007 to January 2010 at Patiala, Punjab (India). Significant decrease in PFTs were observed with increase in concentration levels of pollutants during wheat and rice crop residue burning in the fields. In the present paper a new statistical model on field crop residue burning and PFT has been proposed. The model is based on multiple ordinary least square regression method. It can predict values of PFTs as a function of some parameters of air pollutants. Monthly average values of different variables are used for the purpose of designing four different models. These models were tested by parameters like randomness of residual, rela- tionship of residual with independent variables, etc. The final accepted models could predict up to 88 % variation in the values of force vital capacity and force expiratory volume and up to 77 % variation in peak expiratory flow and force expiratory flow with the corresponding changes in the SPM, PM 10 , PM 2.5 and temperature respectively. This model can be used as a tool for measurement of risk assessment due to air pollution in future. Keywords: Field crop residue burning pulmonary function test; Multiple linear regressions; Ordinary least squares; Statistical model and particulate matter 1. Introduction Air pollution constitutes one of the major public health issues, as Earth’s atmosphere is being contaminated by pollutants emitted by anthropogenic sources such as vehi- cles, industries, mining and others [1–7]. Among all these, field burning of agriculture crop residue is playing a vital role in air pollution. Punjab is one of the leading provinces of India in terms of crop production and lies in the Indo- Gangetic plains having long and large fields. Farmers are using several modern techniques and machines for har- vesting and threshing of crops that create large residue in the field. For early clearance of the fields after harvesting, the farmers burn crop residues in the fields. Punjab being an agriculture state and contributing about 70 % of the grain production in the country, the stubble burnt each year rice and wheat seasons taken together) is about 20 Mt [8]. Field burning of agriculture crop residue is a common process in Patiala during the months of April–May and October–November every year after the harvesting of wheat and rice crops [9–12], respectively. Patiala city is surrounded by agriculture land having no heavy or medium scale industry. Rice and wheat are the two major crops of this region with a combined cropping area of more than 86 % of the total agriculture land. The total biomass gen- erated in Patiala from all sources like agriculture crop residues, forest and other wastelands and agro-industry is about 3.8 MT/year. Out of the total biomass generation in Punjab, crop residue contributes about 90.4 % of it. During the burning period thick cloud of smoke can be seen quite frequently which affect the chemistry of environment. Due to these reasons air gets polluted and affects the human health, as during breathing contaminated air goes inside the respiratory tract and affect the respiratory system [13–15]. Data on PFTs and air pollutants levels were collected continuously for 3 years to study the influence of *Corresponding author, E-mail: ravinder_eeed@yahoo.com; ravinder_eeed@thapar.edu M  APAN-Journal of Metrology Society of India DOI 10.1007/s12647-013-0070-0 123