NORTH- tRRIAND Impact of Global Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation in Greece Istvan Matyasovszky Department of Meteorology Eotvos Lorand University, Budapest 1083 Budapest, Hungary Istvan Bogardi Department of Civil Engineering University of Nebraska--Lincoln Lincoln, Nebraska 68588-053t and Jacques Ganoulis Laboratory of Hydraulics and Hydraulic Works Aristotle University of Thessaloniki 54006 Thessaloniki, Greece Transmitted by L. Duckstein ABSTRACT A stochastic space-time model is used at four locations in Greece for esti- mating the effect of global climate change on daily temperature and precipita- tion. The approach is based on a semi-empirical downscaling of simulated daily atmospheric Circulation Patterns (CP) of General Circulation Models (GCM). Historical data and a 10-year outputs of the Max Planck Institute GCM for the 1 × CO: and 2 x CO2 cases are used. Nine CP types for the winter and summer half years are obtained to characterize large-scale climatic forcing in Greece. Lo- cal temperature and precipitation appear to be highly dependent on CP types. The space-time response of daily temperature to global climate change is slightly variable in Greece. In general, a warmer climate will imply nearly 3°C increase in fall and in winter. The variability within the month will not change considerably. A slight but statistically significant increase of precipitation is obtained at one location and an insignificant increase is found at the other three locations. APPLIED MATHEMATICSAND COMPUTATION 71:119-150 (1995) (~ Elsevier Science Inc., 1995 0096-3003/95/$9.50 655 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10010 SSDI 0096-3003(94)00148-W