A Longitudinal Study of Online Learners: Shoppers, Swirlers, Stoppers, and Succeeders as a Function of Demographic Characteristics Melissa Layne American Public University System mburgess@apus.edu Wallace E. Boston American Public University System wboston@apus.edu Phil Ice American Public University System pice@apus.edu “Look at your past. Your past has determined where you are at this moment. What you do today will determine here you are tomorrow. Are you moving forward or standing still?” Tom Hopkins Abstract During the past decade, the convenience of online learning has afforded postsecondary students of all ages the opportunity to attend and complete online programs—especially to those students who have full and/or part-time employment, dependents, and those maintaining busy schedules. The benefits of taking online courses include flexibility, convenience, and cost-effective educational opportunities anywhere and anytime. Despite these well-known affordances, postsecondary institutions offering online courses are also fully aware of the challenges concomitant with this learning environment—most notably, student retention. Numerous studies have approached the retention, progression, and completion issue from a variety of angles attempting to predict, classify, identify, and increase opportunities for students to reach their personal academic goals. Rather than repositioning and assuming a new angle, the authors of this study chose to fuse these well established--yet isolated angles. Therefore, the purpose of this study was (1) to identify significant student demographic predictors among students who dis-enroll (“stoppers”), reenroll (“swirlers” and/or “shoppers”), and/or complete their online program of study (“succeeders”), and (2) to calculate the variance among the significant predictors. Online Learning Evolution - Qua Vadimas? Recent (and common) rhetoric refers to the swift changes in online learning as “revolutionary”, “game- changing”, or “the end of traditional higher education.” Albeit well intentioned, these less-than-visionary perspectives fail to reflect upon educational history—routinely dismissing the valuable imprints made over time including “the achievements, failures, and meaning of their predecessor’s work” (Pittman, 2012, p. 21). By doing so, we are disregarding the guiding frameworks necessary to support and inform educational advances. There exists no evidence in the history of distance education--or even traditional education for that matter, claiming past occurrences of explosive revolutions, tide-turning game-changers or the dismantling of higher educational institutions. What has been happening for a number of years (and is currently happening) is that education is evolving. Education’s blind fixation to adopt the next fleeting technological advancement is not only misdirected, it is this type of behavior that stifles true advancement. One example of this type of misguided focus is the Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCS) craze. One of the benefits about MOOCS is that these online learning variants are free-of-charge to students and thus, increasingly gaining worldwide attention. This comes as no huge surprise--especially in light of rising tuition costs that continue to plague higher educational institutions. Nevertheless, MOOCS are certainly not a revolutionary development in the world of education. Put simply, MOOCs are yet another form of online learning, they are free, and Page 1 of 11 A Longitudinal Study of Online Learners: Shoppers, Swirlers, Stoppers, and Succeeders a... 12/16/2014 http://www.westga.edu/~distance/ojdla/summer162/layne_boston_ice162.html