Hodges 1 Elena Hodges PLSC 349 Nicholas Sambanis 20 October 2014 Beyond Mere Opportunism: De-Ba’athification’s Role in Iraq’s Sectarian Violence Sectarian violence in Iraq is rooted in an internecine tangle of causes, from the dysfunctional legacy of British nation-building to sociopolitical instability following the fall of Saddam Hussein to the American mishandling of the reconstruction. Rather than an eruption of primordial, unavoidable sectarian divisions, the conflict took on an explicitly sectarian bent as a result of political opportunism and manipulation, taking advantage of the fear and insecurity in Iraq following Saddam’s overthrow. By applying Fearon & Laitin (FL)’s model of civil war onset to Iraq, this paper examines the extent to which conflict in Iraq adheres to and diverges from the model, focusing particularly on the role of de- Ba’athification in rekindling and sustaining conflict. Iraq compared to the Fearon & Laitin model The course of civil war in Iraq aligns with and diverges from the generalized model of civil war onset as presented by FL in intriguing ways. In their seminal paper, FL assert: More ethnically or religiously diverse countries have been no more likely to experience civil violence in this period [1945-1999]...The factors that explain which countries have been at risk not their ethnic or religious characteristics but rather the conditions that favor insurgency. These include poverty, political instability, rough terrain, and large populations. 1 When it comes to variables that reflect state capacity and economic factors, some of Iraq’s data-values support FL’s findings. However, the data on political repression, sectarian Fearon, James and David Laitin. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” pg. 75. 1