COBI cobi12286 Dispatch: March 8, 2014 CE: AFL Journal MSP No. No. of pages: 11 PE: XXXXX 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 UNCORRECTED PROOF Contributed Paper Predicting Extinction Risk of Brazilian Atlantic Forest Angiosperms TARCISO C. C. LE ˜ AO, ∗ † CARLOS R. FONSECA,‡ CARLOS A. PERES,§ AND MARCELO TABARELLI ∗∗ ∗ Departamento de Botˆ anica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, PE, 50670–901, Brazil †Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA ‡Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN, 59072–970, Brazil §School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK Abstract: Understanding how plant life history affects species vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances Q1 and environmental change is a major ecological challenge. We examined how vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size relate to extinction risk throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. We used a database containing species-level information of 6,929 angiosperms within 112 families and a molecular- based working phylogeny. We used decision trees, standard regression, and phylogenetic regression to explore the relationships between species attributes and extinction risk. We found a significant phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. Vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size were related to species extinction risk, but the effect of growth form was not evident after phylogeny was controlled for. Species restricted to either rocky outcrops or scrub vegetation on sandy coastal plains exhibited the highest extinction risk among vegetation types, a finding that supports the hypothesis that species adapted to resource-limited environments are more vulnerable to extinction. Among growth forms, epiphytes were associated with the highest extinction risk in non-phylogenetic regression models, followed by trees, whereas shrubs and climbers were associated with lower extinction risk. However, the higher extinction risk of epiphytes was not significant after correcting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our findings provide new indicators of extinction risk and insights into the mechanisms governing plant vulnerability to extinction in a highly diverse flora where human disturbances are both frequent and widespread. Keywords: vulnerabilidad, comparative method, geographic range size, growth form, plant traits, tropical flora, vegetation types, vulnerability Predicci´ on del Riesgo de Extinci´ on de Angiospermas del Bosque Atl´ antico Brasile˜ no Le˜ ao et al. Resumen: El entendimiento del efecto de la historia de vida de las plantas sobre la vulnerabilidad de las especies a las perturbaciones antropog´ enicas y el cambio ambiental es un reto ecol´ ogico mayor. Examinamos c´ omo el tipo de vegetaci´ on, la forma de crecimiento y el tama˜ no de rango geogr´ afico se relacionan con el riesgo de extinci´ on a lo largo del dominio del Bosque Atl´ antico Brasile˜ no. Usamos una base de datos que conten´ ıa informaci´ on a nivel de especie de 6,929 angiospermas dentro de 112 familias y filogenia funcional con bases moleculares. Usamos ´ arboles de decisi´ on, regresi´ on est´ andar y regresi´ on filogen´etica para explorar las relaciones entre los atributos de especie y el riesgo de extinci´ on. El tipo de vegetaci´ on, la forma de crecimiento y el tama˜ no de rango geogr´ afico estuvieron relacionados con el riesgo de extinci´ on de la especie, pero el efecto de la forma de crecimiento no fue evidente de que se controlara la filogenia. Las especies restringidas a afloramientos rocosos o vegetaci´ on de matorral sobre planicies costeras arenosas exhibieron el riesgo de extinci´ on m´ as alto entre los tipos de vegetaci´ on, un hallazgo que apoya la hip´ otesis de que todas las especies adaptadas a ambientes de recursos limitados son m´ as vulnerables a la extinci´ on. Entre las formas de crecimiento, las ep´ ıfitas estuvieron asociadas con el riesgo m´ as alto de extinci´ on en los modelos de regresi´ on no-filogen´etica, seguidas de los ´ arboles, mientras que los arbustos y las trepadoras estuvieron asociadas con el riesgo de extinci´ on m´ as bajo. Sin embargo, el riesgo m´ as alto de extinci´ on de las ep´ ıfitas no fue significativo despu´ es de corregir la conectividad filogen´ etica. Nuestros resultados proporcionan nuevos indicadores de ∗∗ Address correspondence to Marcelo Tabarelli, email mtrelli@ufpe.br Paper submitted December 18, 2012; revised manuscript accepted December 24, 2013. 1 Conservation Biology, Volume 00, No. 0, 1–11 C  2014 Society for Conservation Biology DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12286