Science and Public Policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010019-12 US$12.00 © Beech Tree Publishing 2010 19 Science and Public Policy, 37(1), February 2010, pages 19–30 DOI: 10.3152/030234210X484793; http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/beech/spp Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries: anticipating value chain transformations and need for policy action Fabienne Abadie, Michael Friedewald and K Matthias Weber This paper discusses the approach adopted to carry out a techno-economic foresight on the creative content industries, within the European Perspectives on the Information Society project. The novelty of the methodology lies in the mix of tools used, the embedding in an adaptive foresight framework and the implementation of a real-time Delphi which lead to interesting methodological lessons. The project succeeded in defining scenarios for the creative content industries, offering distinct trajectories and raising different policy challenges. The impact of the foresight on policy was limited, as it did not lead to direct policy measures, nevertheless, it confirmed some issues of major importance to the various stakeholders. HE INFORMATION AND communication technologies (ICT) sector accounted for about 5% of the size of the European economy and 3% of total employment in 2005 (Turlea et al., 2009) about 5% of the size of the European economy and 3% of total employment in 2005 (Turlea et al., 2009). In the period 2000–2003 this sector contrib- uted to more than 25% of Europe’s productivity growth, making it the leading sector in the EU econ- omy both in terms of labour productivity (almost twice the whole economy average) and research and development (R&D) expenditure, thus contributing most to the development of the EU knowledge economy. At the same time creativity is a key driver of growth and competitiveness of the knowledge econ- omy. In this context the creative content sector is expected to become a major source of next- generation jobs across the world. The creative indus- tries are estimated to account for more than 7% of the world’s gross domestic product and in OECD countries they have an annual growth rate of 5–20% (figures include advertising/marketing, as well as cultural content) (United Nations, 2004). The global entertainment and media industries were estimated to be worth US$1,255 billion in 2004, North Amer- ica leading with a 44.4% share, Europe, the Middle East and Africa coming second with a 33% share. New distribution channels, like broadband internet and wireless communications are driving growth in this industry. Furthermore Europe’s strong cultural heritage provides a sound basis for this sector which is reflected in a 29% world market share (worth US$130 billion) in 2000 (Aho Expert Group, 2006). The growing adoption of ICT is having a momentous impact on all areas of the economy, changing the way goods are produced, distributed and consumed, transforming the creative content value chain (Marcus, 2005). ICT are an important driver for both the supply and demand side of the creative content industry. It is the symbolic, highly digitisable nature of the goods it produces combined T Fabienne Abadie (corresponding author) is at European Com- mission Directorate Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospec- tive Technological Studies, Edificio EXPO, C/ Inca Garcilaso, s/n, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain: Email: fabienne.abadie@ec. europa.eu; Tel: +34 954 488228: Fax: +34 954 488208. Michael Friedewald is at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Inno- vation Research Competence Center ‘New Emerging Technolo- gies’, Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany; Email: michael.friedewald@isi.fraunhofer.de; Tel: +49 721 6809.146; Matthias Weber is at the Austrian Institute of Technology, De- partment Foresight and Policy Development, Donau-City- Strasse 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria; Email: matthias.weber@ arcs.ac.at; Tel: +43 50550 4561. For acknowledgements see page 30.