23 3 Vol.23 No.3 Mar. 2003
2003 3 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2003 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng.
0258-8013 (2003) 03-0001-04 TM714 A 470 4051
1 1 1 2 2
1. 100084 2. 518001
EXTENDED SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING
PRINCIPLE AND METHOD
MO Wei-ren
1
, ZHANG Bo-ming
1
, SUN Hong-bin
1
, HU Zi-heng
2
, LIU Shun-gui
2
(1. Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
2. Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Electric Power Group, Shenzhen 518001, China)
ABSTRACT The loads collected yesterday were used to
predict the loads tomorrow in conventional short-term load
forecasting concept. The load data currently collected were not
adopted in conventional method. In order to meet the
requirement of electricity marketing in China, a new concept
of Extended Short-Term Load Forecasting is defined in this
paper. A new forecasting mode is designed so that the historical
load information just collected can be utilized by this method to
refresh the forecasted loads of the rest periods in current day.
An integrated optimization model is presented and a method to
select optimal weights in the forecasting model is given.
Operation practice of the method applied to a practical power
utility shows that an accuracy improvement of more than 2%
has been achieved by the proposed method. Possible areas of
application of this method are also discussed.
KEY WORDS: Electricity market; Load forecasting; Extended
short-term; Synthesized method
2 h
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Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China
(50107005)
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