23 3 Vol.23 No.3 Mar. 2003 2003 3 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2003 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 0258-8013 (2003) 03-0001-04 TM714 A 470 4051 1 1 1 2 2 1. 100084 2. 518001 EXTENDED SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING PRINCIPLE AND METHOD MO Wei-ren 1 , ZHANG Bo-ming 1 , SUN Hong-bin 1 , HU Zi-heng 2 , LIU Shun-gui 2 (1. Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China 2. Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Electric Power Group, Shenzhen 518001, China) ABSTRACT The loads collected yesterday were used to predict the loads tomorrow in conventional short-term load forecasting concept. The load data currently collected were not adopted in conventional method. In order to meet the requirement of electricity marketing in China, a new concept of Extended Short-Term Load Forecasting is defined in this paper. A new forecasting mode is designed so that the historical load information just collected can be utilized by this method to refresh the forecasted loads of the rest periods in current day. An integrated optimization model is presented and a method to select optimal weights in the forecasting model is given. Operation practice of the method applied to a practical power utility shows that an accuracy improvement of more than 2% has been achieved by the proposed method. Possible areas of application of this method are also discussed. KEY WORDS: Electricity market; Load forecasting; Extended short-term; Synthesized method 2 h 1 50107005 Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (50107005) [1] [1] 1~60min [2] 1~7 1~12 1~10 24 h 2 h h ( 11 ) 2 24 h 11