Individual Conflict Analysis (Not to be quoted) Preventing Communal Conflict in Jayapura, Papua, Indonesia: An Early Warning System (FAST) Approach 1 By Ridwan al-Makassary Abstract This policy brief tries to comprehensively explain the potential communal conflict in Jayapura and how to prevent it by utilizing an early warning system (FAST) approach. In practice, it will start by describing the background of this paper, and depicting short profile of Jayapura. Then, the brief will be followed up by comprehensively analyzing the root causes, proximate causes, positive intervening factors, negative intervening factors and policy options in order to prevent the potentiality of a communal conflict. I conclude that as long as that negative intervening factors are dominant, as well as there is a trigger so that the communal conflict will occur. Although religion is not the main driver of the conflict, it is sometimes misused as vehicle to activate and translate it to an “ethno-religious conflict”. Otherwise, if all stakeholders can enlarge the positive intervening factors and diminish the negative intervening factors, Jayapura will not be trapped in a communal conflict. Keywords: Communal conflict, root causes, proximate causes, negative factors, positive factors Background Generally speaking, there are four types of conflict in Papua. First, armed conflict occurs between the Free Papuan Movement and the military of Indonesia. Second, state violence, meaning the state violence towards civilians related to the armed group of Free Papuan Movement as reaction or vengeance; Third, Structural violence meaning the state of Indonesia has enacted policies that make many Papuan people marginalized and stuck in terms of economic and standard living. Fourth, communal conflict based on religion, ethnic, sub-ethnic identities or mix of them. This writing focuses to the latter, namely, communal conflict or popular as “Ethno- Religious Conflict”. To date, Jayapura has witnessed the growing prejudices between Christians and Muslims. One such example is the suspiciousness of Christians about the 1 This writing basically was my Individual Conflict Analysis in Class 18 of Rotary Peace Chula, Thailand, 2015. I am grateful to Erick Melander who introduced me with the early warning system, FAST, and Jenn Weidmann for her critical comments to this paper, as well as Elma Demir, for editing of the paper to make it concise and readable.