Rev. Téc. Ing. Univ. Zulia. Vol. 37, Nº 3, 41 - 50, 2014 Electric energy consumption of domestic sector in India S.Saravanan 1 , S.Kannan 2 , C.Thangaraj 3 1 s.saravanan@klu.ac.in, Department of EEE, Kalasalingam University, Tamil Nadu, India 2 kannaneeeps@gmail.com, Department of EEE, Ramco Institute of Technology, Tamil Nadu, India. 3 Former Vice Chancellor, Anna University of Technology Chennai, Chennai, India Abstract The objective of this study is to describe the development of an electric energy consumption model which is able to predict the future electricity consumption (EC) of the domestic sector (DS) in India. Computational intelligence (CI) techniques such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)are used. Population, Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and electricity production are used as the input variables. The EC-DS is the predicted output variable. A 31-year data set is used to train the network and 7-year data set is used to test the network. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Bias Error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)are used as performance evaluation criteria. Results obtained using ANN, LS-SVM and ANFIS methods are compared with each other. The performance of ANFIS is found to be more efficient than ANN and LS-SVM. The future projections are carried out for the period between 2015and 2025. Keywords: ANFIS, ANN, electricity production, India, LS-SVM, per capita GDP, population 1. INTRODUCTION Electric energy plays a vital role in our day-to-day life activity because it is needed in almost all type of human activities, such as domestic, industrial production, agriculture and other activities. The limited availability of energy resources and production related to environmental issues, warrant effective and efficient methodologies of production and uses. Electric energy is one of the important development parameters in any developing country. In India, growing human population, large scale industries, continuing pressure for better living standards and higher economic growth rate require more electric energy. In parallel, the consumption of electricity has also been increasing. EC is an important component for technical, social and economic development of all countries. Fig. 1 Sector wise electricity consumption (EC) in the year 2011 The electricity consumption (EC) data was collected from energy statistics of India released for the year 2013 by Central Statistics Office, Government of India.India’s net EC has increased at an average rate of 7.3 % annually from 2000 to 2012. The EC was 43.724 Tera Watt hour (TWh) in 1970 and has increased to 612.645TWh in 2010. The sector wise EC for the year 2011 is shown in Fig. 1. In India, EC of domestic sector (DS) is the second biggest consumer of the electric energy. In the year 2011, 21.56% of electricity is consumed in DS of India. Therefore prediction of EC-DS is of prime importance of the future energy strategies, such as identification and analysis of energy issues and development. Fig. 2 indicates that the EC-DShas increased approximately 3 times between the year 1995 and 2010. It has increased from 3840 Giga Watt hour (GWh) in 1970 to 146080 GWh in 2010 with an annual average growth rate of 9.87 %. 41