ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR Contribution for ENERGY 2030 2 nd version 1 Prof. Stef Proost 1. Scope and outline of the document In this document we analyse the possible developments of energy use in the transport sector. We mainly focus on Belgium and analyse the period up to 2030. Section 2 presents the business as usual developments. Section 3 discusses the need to improve the fuel efficiency of cars. Section 4 deals with new technological developments. Security of supply is discussed in section 5 and section 6 concludes. 2. Business as usual developments Modeling tool used We rely on a recent study made with the TREMOVE II model for Belgium (TMLeuven, 2006). The TREMOVE model is a model covering the transport sector that has been used since a decade to study the environmental regulation of the European transport sector. For given growth rates of passenger and freight demand, it models the equilibrium on the transport markets. Passenger and freight transport can choose between different modes and different types of vehicles. This choice is a function of preferences, money costs and time costs. The stock of vehicles evolves over time in function of scrapping and the choice of new vehicles. Different policies can affect the equilibrium. These can be taxation policies on motorfuels or car use but also regulation policies that limit emissions of cars and other transport means. Assumptions for the business as usual scenario The BAU scenario is based on a European forecast for passenger and freight transport that results from a moderate growth in energy prices and economic growth. In the BAU scenario there is moderate but continuous growth in the passenger transport sector. Most modal shares do not change a lot except for air traffic that grows quickly. 1 I benefited from useful comments of W.D’haeseleer.