Life Science Journal 2013;10(4) http://www.lifesciencesite.com 3179 Evaluation of CSM-Ceres-Maize Model for Simulating Maize Production in Northern Delta of Egypt Abdrabbo M. A. A. 1,* , F. A. Hashem 1 , Maha L. Elsayed 1 , M. A. Abul-Soud 1 , A. A. Farag 1 , Maha M. Hamada 2 , and K.M. Refaie 1 1 Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate, Agricultural Research Center, Dokki 12411, Giza- Egypt 2 Agronomy Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt abdrabbo@yahoo.com Abstract: There is widespread consensus that Egypt is among the developing countries that are most vulnerable to the likely negative impacts of climate change. Northern Egypt is the most threaten area under Egyptian conditions. The expected climate change impacts are the driving force to investigate the suitable sowing date and irrigation requirements to face the food security needs. A field study was conducted in 2011 and 2012 at El-Bosaily farm in the Northern coast of Egypt. The main objectives of this study were to adapt maize production under expected climate change impacts via evaluating the response of the Single Cross 10 maize (Zea mays L.) hybrid to three different sowing dates (SD) (1 st and mid of May and 1 st of June) and four applied irrigation levels 0.6, 0.8, 1.0 and 1.2 of ET c which applied by drip irrigation system. No. of leaves, leaf area index, number of days for 50 % tasseling and silking, grain yield (g/plant), average weight of 100 seeds and straw yield (g/plant) were determined beside water use efficiency. The obtained results showed that the 0.6 and 0.8 of (ET c ) irrigation treatments attributed to decline vegetative growth as well as growth yield. Nevertheless, the 1.2 irrigation treatments gave the highest grain yield and vegetative growth which was compensated the amount of water consumed. The highest yield was obtained by the second sowing date followed by the third one. The final results show that the 0.6 irrigation level gave the highest water use efficiency; increasing irrigation water above 0.6 from ET c led to decrease water use efficiency. The lowest value of seasonal water consumption was recorded by the first sowing date while the second date gave the highest seasonal water consumption. Calibration and validation of CERES-Maize crop simulation model using experimental datasets of years 2011 and 2012 were done successfully giving very excellent values for RMSE and d- Stat evaluation indexes. Environmental modification option of the model was used to rise maximum and minimum temperature by 1.5 o C and 3.5 o C for both seasons. Reductions in grain yield for 1.5 o C scenario arrived to -25.1 than 2011 year and -31.9% than 2012 year. Using 3.5 o C scenario caused declines in grain yield arrived to -54.8% than 2011 year and -66.2% than 2012 year. [Abdrabbo M. A., F. A. Hashem, Maha L. Elsayed, A. A. Farag, M. A. Abul-Soud, Maha M. Hamada and K.M. Refaie. Evaluation of CSM-Ceres-Maize Model for Simulating Maize Production in Northern Delta of Egypt. Life Sci J 2013;10(4):3179-3192]. (ISSN:1097-8135). http://www.lifesciencesite.com . 425 Keywords: Water requirement, sowing date, grain and straw yield, evapotranspiration, agro-meteorological data, crop simulation model, climate changes, and water use efficiency. 1. Introduction: Maize is one of the most important cereal crops grown principally during the summer season in Egypt. Compared to other crops, maize is more efficient in water use (Jensen, 1973). Maize and other C4 crop species have nearly 2-fold higher water use efficiency than C3 species (Begg and Turner 1976). The efficient use of water by modern irrigation systems is becoming increasingly important in arid and semi-arid regions with limited water resources (El-Hendawy et al., 2008). Egypt is very dependent on natural resources that are vulnerable to climate change. The Nile Delta region is considered under many studies as a homogenous agriculture region in Egypt. Whereas, the Northern Nile Delta could be the highest vulnerable sub-region in the Nile Delta due to the combination effect of natural, human, agriculture management, and economical and political conditions. Crop yields and crop water use could be affected by climate change (Medany and Attaher, 2009). In environments of high light intensity and temperature, the higher water use efficiency (WUE) is due mainly to higher rates of photosynthesis by C4 crops, which results in more dry matter (DM) accumulation. However, because maize produces larger quantities of DM per acre than most other crops, soil moisture deficit can occur quickly, especially during reproductive growth. Water loss in maize fields is primarily by surface evaporation from bare soil during early vegetative growth but shifts to evapotranspiration as the tassel begins to emerge and reproductive growth begins (Howell et al., 1990; Yordanov et al., 1997; Sadler et al., 2000). Soil moisture deficit has been considered an economic and efficient means of utilizing drought-prone areas when appropriate management practices to reduce water losses are needed (Turner, 1991). Shani and Dudley