19.04.2015 EJPAU 2015. Kołoszycz E. , Wilczyński A. VARIABILITY OF FARM INCOME IN PLANT PRODUCTION FARMS IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF C… http://www.ejpau.media.pl/volume18/issue1/art07.html 1/12 2015 Volume 18 Issue 1 Topic: Economics Electronic Journal of Polish Agricultural Universities (EJPAU) founded by all Polish Agriculture Universities presents original papers and review articles relevant to all aspects of agricultural sciences. It is target for persons working both in science and industry,regulatory agencies or teaching in agricultural sector. Covered by IŻIS Publishing (Żood Science and Technology Abstracts), ELSEVIER Science  Żood Science and Technology Program, CAS USA (Chemical Abstracts), CABI Publishing UK and ALPSP (Association of Learned and Professional Society Publisher  full membership). Presented in the Master List ofThomson ISI. ELECTRONIC JOURNAL OF POLISH AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITIES Copyright © Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Przyrodniczego we Wroclawiu, ISSN 15050297 Kołoszycz E. , Wilczyński A. 2015. VARIABILITY OŻ ŻARM INCOME IN PLANT PRODUCTION ŻARMS IN THE PERSPECTIVE OŻ COMMON AżRICULTURE POLICY REŻORM, EJPAU 18(1), #07. Available Online: http://www.ejpau.media.pl/volume18/issue1/art07.html VARIABILITY OF FARM INCOME IN PLANT PRODUCTION FARMS IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF COMMON AGRICULTURE POLICY REFORM Ewa Kołoszycz, Artur Wilczyński Department of Management, Faculty of Economics, West Pomeranian University of Technology Szczecin, Poland ABSTRACT The research was concerned with assessment of the level of income from family farms specialized in arable crops in the years 2014–2020. The analysis assumed a stochastic nature of yields of chosen crops and their prices on the basis of historic data. Using data and measures of the Polish ŻADN, five models of farms were created and simulations were carried out addressing also the problemof the influence of implementation of agricultural practices beneficial for the climate and the environment on the economic situation of farms. The obtained results indicate that nominal income from the family farm in the majority of farms will remain at the level similar to the income in the year 2014. Agricultural practices beneficial for the climate and the environment, as the new instrument of Common Agricultural Policy, may influence both the structure of crops and the economic situation only in the case of farms of the biggest acreage. Key words: risk, variability of yields, variability of prices of agricultural products, greening. INTRODUCTION Making predictions about the future is a complex process. Typically, it consists in gathering and analyzing historic data on a chosen system and then extrapolating the observed regularities to the future. In this manner it is possible to research reactions of a system to changes in its structure and/or its environment. The process becomes more complicated with the increase of instability and complexity of the environment. These problems are also present in preparing forecasts about production economic situation of farms. As an established knowledge says, agricultural production has a certain specificity resulting from its specific features, both primary and secondary [24]. This specificity gives rise to the risk that – at a distance ofyears – any decision taken in the farm may prove wrong. In the process of making predictions about the future, quantitative methods are widely used, mainly of mathematicalstatistical nature, including those based on the statisticeconomic models. Employment of the deterministic and stochastic computer