1 st International Symposium on Sustainable Aviation 31 May – 3 June, 2015 Istanbul, TURKEY ISSA-I-000 MODEL FOR THE VIABILITY STUDY OF LARGE SCALE USE OF AVIATION BIOFUEL IN THE EUROPEAN UNION Gustavo Alonso 1 , Arturo Benito 1 , Alberto Blanch 2 1 Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, 2 SENASA 1 Plaza Cardenal Cisneros, 28040 Madrid, Spain gustavo.alonso@upm.es , arturo.benito@upm.es, ablanch@senasa.es SUMMARY A model for the viability study of large scale use of aviation biofuel in the European Union is presented. The model allows the evaluation of the economic consequences on airlines of establishing political targets for the utilization of biofuels, taking into account the different cost structures of the different business models of airlines. Actual traffic data is used to project traffic in 2020. A sensitivity analysis is performed based on different oil and biofuel prices. The results of the preliminary analysis show an important repercussion on the EU airlines at current fuel prices. Keywords: ISSA, conference template, guideline. INTRODUCTION ITAKA (Initiative Towards sustAinable Kerosene for Aviation) is an EU initiative under Seventh Framework Programme aiming to contribute to the European Commission’s ‘Biofuel Flight Path Initiative’ annual production target of two million tonnes of biofuel for aviation by 2020 (EU, 2013). ITAKA consists of a collaborative project, aimed at producing sustainable renewable aviation fuel and to test its utilisation in existing logistic systems and in normal flight operations in Europe. In the frame of this project, it has been necessary to develop a methodology for the estimation of airline operating costs with anticipated traffic data, in order to size the effects of the realization of FlightPath 2020 programme (EU, 2013). The necessary steps to accomplish this task are:  Setting up a baseline of commercial flights and associated fuel consumptions in the EU (Alonso et al, 2014).  Definition of the cost structure of the different commercial operators in that baseline, according to their business model, particularly concerning fuel expenses percentage.  Projection of the baseline up to 2020, based on published traffic growth forecast and on the anticipated market share growth of each airline business model.  Evolution of oil price, and sensitivity analysis to different biokerosene prices.  Analysis of potential consequences for the competitiveness of EU airlines and airports, consuming and distributing respectively more expensive fuel. A prerequisite for this analysis is the definition of the way in which the biokerosene amount is introduced in the general air transport commercial fuel distribution system. A basic assumption is that the added fuel will be “drop-in”, meaning that it will be similar to the fossil origin kerosene and, therefore, certified for blending and using the same logistics facilities, without any special arrangement. At this moment, ASTM D7566 qualified biofuel can be mixed up to 50% with the standard kerosene to be consumed by any aviation turbine engine. For the purposes of this study, that is the maximum level of blending allowed. The second important feature is how the biokerosene would be mixed with the standard fuel. This is important because the geographical distribution of the mixing will translate in an unequal utilisation by different airlines and may have consequences in the individual cost repercussions as well. In addition, the present Emissions Trading System enforced by the European Union gives the biofuel a zero emission factor, providing an economic incentive to its use, but making necessary to carry a detailed accountability of the quantity use in intra-EU flights. There are a number of possibilities going between two extreme cases:  The total amount of biokerosene being produced is delivered to the fuel distributors to be mixed with the total amount of fossil origin kerosene sold to the operators. In this way, the percentage of biofuel in the fuel burned by the airlines will be constant. This creates some distribution problems if the production rate of biokerosene is not constant or it is a one-time fixed amount. In the case of the ground transport it is mandatory to have a minimum percentage of biodiesel in the fuel delivered by the EU 1 territory petrol stations but, unlike air transport, there is no need of computing the actual consumed bio quantity.  The total amount of biokerosene being produced is delivered to a few points or distributors who mix it with standard kerosene in a previously fixed proportion, never higher than 50%. This is delivered in parallel with the fossil origin fuel and the operators may uplift one or the other according to either established rules or a system of market