The Role of Socio-Political Risk Analysis in Developing Communications Strategies for Controversial Projects: The Case of the West Africa Gas Pipeline Project Paper Presented at the CommNet Forum, World Bank, Washington, May 9-11, 2005 Paul Mitchell, Emanuele Santi, Zita Lichtenberg 1 Abstract A keen understanding of the social and political context has been proven critical to the success of development projects, especially those that are potentially controversial, and involve environmental concerns, regional politics and border issues, as in the case of the World Bank-supported West Africa Gas Pipeline Project. The pipeline project was designed to replace expensive fuel used in Ghana, Togo and Benin, with cheap, abundant natural gas from Nigeria. It was expected to bring substantial economic and social benefits as a result of long-term, reliable access to a clean energy supply. Nevertheless, many economic, social and environmental concerns were raised in the four countries, making this one of the most controversial project in the West Africa Region. A communications audit, and subsequent consultation work undertaken by the World Bank’s Development Communications Division, together with local communications officers, resulted in a clear understanding of the socio-political risks involved; assisted the government and World Bank staff with incorporating a communications strategy into the project design; and helped ensure a smooth approval process by the World Bank Board of Directors I. The Case for Socio-political Analysis. The fact that a national government desires a particular reform program is only the first step in determining whether such a program is feasible. Opposition to reform can come from various stakeholders with vested interest in the status quo or who mistrust the proposed reforms for various reasons, including fear of change, lack of information or misinformation about the goals of the reforms. The roster of failed, donor-supported reform programs exhibits a common theme of a lack of understanding of the social, political and economic forces that could potentially derail reforms. A report commissioned by the World Bank’s Operations, Policy and Country Services (OPCS) department in 2001 concluded that lack of attention to reform 1 Paul Mitchell is the Manager of the Development Communication at World Bank; Emanuele Santi is a Communication Associate and Zita Lichtenberg a consultant for the same unit. This paper is not intended to serve as a comprehensive treatment of the socio-political analysis methodology and the case study, but rather to encourage discussion on the topic. The views expressed are solely those of the authors and their views and this paper should not be attributed to the World Bank. This paper benefited greatly from valuable input from Diana Chung (EXTCD) and Fumiko Nagano (EXTCD).