Forest Ecology and Management 262 (2011) 139–149 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Forest Ecology and Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/foreco Distribution modelling of Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica) invasion in the Cumberland Plateau and Mountain Region, USA D. Lemke a,b,∗ , P.E. Hulme c , J.A. Brown a , W. Tadesse b a Biomathematics Research Centre, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand b Center for Forest Ecosystem Assessment, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, PO Box 1927, Normal, AL 35762, USA c The Bio-Protection Research Centre, Lincoln University, PO Box 84, Lincoln, New Zealand article info Article history: Received 14 November 2010 Received in revised form 6 March 2011 Accepted 9 March 2011 Available online 13 April 2011 Keywords: Biological invasions Japanese honeysuckle Logistic regression Maximum entropy Spatial modelling Weed abstract Predicting the potential distribution of invasive plants within a specific region is pivotal to planning effective management but is challenged by attempting to model expanding populations that are rarely at equilibrium with their environment. We adopt an ensemble modelling approach to assess the potential distribution of Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica), a vine invasive to forests of the Cumberland Plateau and Mountain Region in the southeast of USA. The influence of disturbance, spatial and temporal heterogeneity and other landscape characteristics were assessed by creating regional level models based on occurrence records from the United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database. Logistic regression and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models were assessed independently and evaluated as predictive tools to test the value of presence/absence and presence only data in predicting species distributions. Ensemble models were also developed that combined the pre- dictions of the two modelling approaches to obtain a more robust prediction. While logistic and MaxEnt models were similar in their predictive ability and dominant input variables, the ensemble approach derived the best fitting model overall. The regional distribution of Japanese honeysuckle was influenced greatly by environmental conditions such as elevation, slope, and temperature with anthropogenic activ- ity having significant, though lesser, influence. The ensemble models predict that Japanese honeysuckle has nearly reached its potential distribution. However, given the critical role of minimum temperature on Japanese honeysuckle distribution, future occupancy at higher elevations is likely to increase since Jan- uary temperatures for this region are predicted to rise by 1–4 ◦ C over the next 100 years. The models also give some indication of the likely effect of land cover change on its distribution. Japanese honeysuckle tended to be associated with a high component of farming or low component of forest within the local neighbourhood. This suggests disturbed forest and/or high fragmentation has a higher invasion potential and given past trends and expected continued population growth this disturbance and fragmentation will only increase. The models can be integrated into forest management decision support systems and assist in the development of long term management plans, integrating the impact of potential climate and land cover change scenarios. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction The rapid anthropogenic acceleration of species introductions over the last century (Hulme et al., 2009) and subsequent conse- quences on economies and ecosystems (Vilà et al., 2010) has led to biological invasions being recognised as a major component of global environmental change (Ricciardi, 2007; Vitousek et al., ∗ Corresponding author at: Center for Forest Ecosystem Assessment, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, Alabama Agricultural and Mechan- ical University, PO Box 1927, Normal, AL 35762, USA. E-mail address: dawn.lemke@aamu.edu (D. Lemke). 1997). The growing human population, rise in global trade, relative ease of travel and transport, and degradation of native habitats all contribute to the increase in introduction rate, establishment and spread of alien plants (D’Antonio et al., 2004; Hulme, 2009; Myers and Bazely, 2003). Human activities have significantly altered land- scapes through the fragmentation of natural habitats and creation of agricultural and urban land. Such environmental heterogeneity is thought to play a defining role in whether ecosystems can resist alien species invasions and the rate at which an invasion process will likely occur across the landscape (Melbourne et al., 2007). The eastern forests in the United States are experiencing signif- icant invasions of alien plants (Martin et al., 2009). Invasive alien plants raise concerns about the continued integrity of forest ecosys- 0378-1127/$ – see front matter © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2011.03.014