Journal of Sustainable Tourism Vol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 393–408 Can tourism deliver its “aspirational” greenhouse gas emission reduction targets? Daniel Scott a∗ , Paul Peeters b and Stefan G¨ ossling c a Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada; b Centre for Sustainable Tourism and Transport, NHTV Breda University of Applied Sciences, Breda, Netherlands; c Department of Service Management, Lund University; Linnaeus School of Business and Economics, Kalmar, Sweden; Western Norway Research Institute, Sogndal, Norway (Received 21 October 2009; final version received 19 January 2010) This review paper examines the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets postulated by a range of organizations seeking to reduce the consequences of global climate change and how, or if, the global tourism sector can achieve its share of those targets. It takes both existing estimates of current tourism GHG emissions and emissions projected in a business-as-usual scenario through to 2035 and contrasts them with the “aspirational” emission reduction targets proclaimed by the sector. Analysis reveals that with current high-growth emission trends in tourism, the sector could become a major global source of GHGs in the future if other economic sectors achieve significant emission reductions. Success in achieving emission reductions in tourism is found to be largely dependent on major policy and practice changes in air travel, and stated tourism emission reduction targets do not appear feasible without volumetric changes considering the limited technical emission reduction potential currently projected for the aviation sector. The opportunities and challenges associated with a shift towards a low-carbon global economy are anticipated to transform tourism globally and in all respects. Much greater consideration and dissemination of these issues is required to inform future tourism development and travel decisions. Keywords: air travel; carbon taxes; climate change; tourism development; greenhouse gas; mobility Introduction There is now compelling evidence that the global climate has changed compared with the pre-industrial era and is anticipated to continue to change over the twenty-first century and beyond. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007a, p. 30) has declared that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal” and estimated that the global mean temperature has increased approximately 0.76 ◦ C between 1850–1899 and 2001– 2005. The IPCC (2007a) also concluded that most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid-twentieth century is “very likely” (>90% probability) the result of human activities that are increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. The IPCC (2007a) further projected that the pace of climate change is “very likely” (>90% probability) to accelerate with continued GHG emissions, with the best estimate ∗ Corresponding author. Email: dj2scott@uwaterloo.ca ISSN 0966-9582 print / ISSN 1747-7646 online C  2010 Taylor & Francis DOI: 10.1080/09669581003653542 http://www.informaworld.com