1 Center Center Center Center for for for for Scientific Scientific Scientific Scientific Analysis Analysis Analysis Analysis of of of of Policy, Policy, Policy, Policy, LLC LLC LLC LLC http://www.scipolicy.org White Paper Series: Case Studies Using IPA to Evaluate Policies of 2016 Presidential Candidates Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Chafee’s Chafee’s Chafee’s Chafee’s Economic Economic Economic Economic Policy Policy Policy Policy: A Structural Structural Structural Structural Case Case Case Case Study Study Study Study Steven Steven Steven Steven E. E. E. E. Wallis, Wallis, Wallis, Wallis, PhD; PhD; PhD; PhD; Bernadette Bernadette Bernadette Bernadette Wright, Wright, Wright, Wright, PhD PhD PhD PhD Due to the large number of candidates running for president and the complexity of their policy statements, we present this analysis to help voters understand, evaluate, and compare those policies to support decision-making and our democratic process. Lincoln Chafee is a 2016 Democratic Candidate for U.S. President. In this white paper, we present the results of an Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) study of his economic policy as presented on his website: http://www.chafee2016.com/policy/ Our goal here is to conduct a scientific, non- partisan evaluation to suggest the potential for success, along with opportunities for improvement, of that policy. It is not our intent to suggest that the policy might be right or wrong, good or bad (as partisan analyses might claim). Instead, our focus is on whether the policy will have the effects anticipated according to the text provided by the candidate. Another way to explain this is that we are looking at the policy as a sense- making device or as a kind of map. Higher scores indicate greater ability to make effective policy decisions. This indicates the policy’s ability to reach its stated goals in much the same was as a road map with more roads and destination provides a more useful tool for planning a business trip or a vacation. Method of Analysis This evaluation is primarily an analysis of the internal logic-structures of the policy. Those provide useful indicators of the policy’s sense-making ability and predictors for its potential success or failure. Two important assumptions may present additional challenges to the effectiveness of any policy. First, the extent to which the claims of the policy are based on good empirical data. Second, the extent to which the policy may be implemented as proposed. Those two issues may present additional challenges to the effectiveness of this policy. However, they are not part of our present analysis. IPA (Integrative Propositional Analysis) is an emerging methodology used to analyze the internal structure of conceptual systems such as theories, strategic plans, and policies. It is a rigorous, objective, and non-partisan approach. Many scholarly publications have shown the effectiveness of IPA. You may find these in the fields of policy, organizational learning, management, philosophy, and others. For an overview and background information, please see our white papers: http://scipolicy.org/principles-of-ipa--- white-papers.html