Leaving school in an economic downturn and self-esteem across early and middle adulthood Johanna Catherine Maclean, Ph.D. a,* Terrence D. Hill, Ph.D. b Abstract In this study, we test whether leaving school in an economic downturn impacts self-esteem across early and middle adulthood. Self-esteem is of interest to economists because it is an established determinant of important socioeconomic outcomes such as wages, crime, marriage, health, and civic engagement. Previous research suggests that leaving school in a downturn can depress career trajectories, and social psychological theory predicts that career success is an important determinant of self-esteem. We model responses to a standard measure of self-esteem (the Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale) as a function of the state unemployment rate at school- leaving. We address the potential endogeneity of time and location of school-leaving with instrumental variables. Our results suggest that leaving school in an economic downturn can undermine self-esteem over time. Keywords: self-esteem; non-cognitive skills; school-leaving; macroeconomic fluctuations. JEL classification: I1; I12; J2 Disclaimer: This research was conducted with restricted access to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the BLS. a Associate Professor, Temple University, Department of Economics, Ritter Annex 869 -- 1301 Cecil B Moore Avenue, Philadelphia PA, 19122, E-mail: catherine.maclean@temple.edu. b Associate Professor, The University of Arizona, School of Sociology, Social Sciences Building, Room 400, 1145 E. South Campus Drive, Tucson AZ, E-mail: tdhill@email.arizona.edu. *Corresponding author. **We thank Chad Cotti, Michael Grossman, Douglas Webber, two anonymous referees, and seminar participants at the 2014 American Society of Health Economists Conference and the 2015 International Society of Health Economists Association World Congress for helpful comments. All errors are our own.