PERFORMANCE MULTIMODEL CHFP (CLIMATE-SYTEM HISTORICAL FORECAST PROJECT) IN CHARACTERIZE FEATURE AND IMPACT OF EL NINO MODOKI 1 Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, 1 Dr.Nurjanna Joko Trilaksono 1 Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung mandharabrasika@gmail.com ABSTRACT The performance of the Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) for El Nino Modoki prediction during 1980-2010 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures.Skill measure performance of single model and multimodel at two El Nino Modoki season, boreal summer and boreal winter. Ensemble model scheme is built based on the season, the best single model in boreal summer, boreal winter and all season. Some single models spread overestimate in some years that can make mistake in prediction modoki event. The best ensemble model scheme is used to see the characteristic of the el nino modoki. The scheme is used to see the el nino modoki warm pool propagation in the central pacific equatorial for determine the modoki event. The other ways to determine the el nino modoki event are from its spasial and temporal feature. SSTA of the ocean around the world when the modoki event was occured was very unique, there was warm pool flanked by cold pool. El nino modoki has a large decadal background. The impact of El Nino Modoki for precipitation in Indonesia are significant. Strongest impact is held in boreal summer. El Nino Modoki is dificult to understanding. It means some good predictions. Keywords: El Nino Modoki, SSTA, ensemble, Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) 1. Introduction El Nino is the occurrence of climate disruption caused by increase of SST in the East Pacific Ocean. El Nino occurs where the trade winds blow from the west (subtropical area) towards the east (around equator), so that the warm pool of the Pacific Ocean is gathered in the East Pacific. In mid-summer (June-September) 2014 SST anomalies in the Pacific Equatorial showed odd shapes tripole zone. This incident did not meet the criteria of El Nino. The criteria of El Nino was published by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America. Referring to the SST anomalies in 2004, warming in the Central Pacific is flanked by colder SST anomalies in the west and the east,