404
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Pediatric Exercise Science, 2015, 27, 404 -411
http://dx.doi.org/10.1123/pes.2014-0175
© 2015 Human Kinetics, Inc.
Burns, Brusseau, and Eisenman are with the Dept. of Exer-
cise and Sport Science, University of Utah, Salt Lake City,
UT. Hannon is with the Dept. of Physical Activity and Sport
Sciences, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV. Saint-
Maurice and Welk are with the Dept. Of Kinesiology, Iowa State
University, Ames, IA. Mahar is with the Dept. of Kinesioloogy,
East Carolina University, Greenville, NC. Address author cor-
respondence to Ryan D. Burns at ryan.d.burns@utah.edu.
Cross-Validation of Aerobic Capacity Prediction Models in
Adolescents
Ryan D. Burns
University of Utah
James C. Hannon
West Virginia University
Timothy A. Brusseau and Patricia A. Eisenman
University of Utah
Pedro F. Saint-Maurice and Greg J. Welk
Iowa State University
Matthew T. Mahar
East Carolina University
Cardiorespiratory endurance is a component of health-related itness. FITNESSGRAM recommends the Progres-
sive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) or One mile Run/Walk (1MRW) to assess cardiorespira-
tory endurance by estimating VO
2 Peak
. No research has cross-validated prediction models from both PACER and
1MRW, including the New PACER Model and PACER-Mile Equivalent (PACER-MEQ) using current standards.
The purpose of this study was to cross-validate prediction models from PACER and 1MRW against measured
VO
2 Peak
in adolescents. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13–16 years
(Mean = 14.7 ± 1.3 years; 32 girls, 52 boys) who completed the PACER and 1MRW in addition to a laboratory
maximal treadmill test to measure VO
2 Peak
. Multiple correlations among various models with measured VO
2 Peak
were considered moderately strong (R = .74–0.78), and prediction error (RMSE) ranged from 5.95 ml·kg
-1,
min
-1
to
8.27 ml·kg
-1.
min
-1
. Criterion-referenced agreement into FITNESSGRAM’s Healthy Fitness Zones was considered
fair-to-good among models (Kappa = 0.31–0.62; Agreement = 75.5–89.9%; F = 0.08–0.65). In conclusion, predic-
tion models demonstrated moderately strong linear relationships with measured VO
2 Peak
, fair prediction error, and
fair-to-good criterion referenced agreement with measured VO
2 Peak
into FITNESSGRAM’s Healthy Fitness Zones.
Cardiorespiratory endurance is an important domain
of health-related itness because of its links to cardio-met-
abolic health in both the pediatric and adult populations
(3,12). Results from the National Health and Nutrition
Examination Survey (NHANES) shown that more than
one-third of American children and adolescents have
inadequate levels of cardiorespiratory endurance (6,26).
Cardiorespiratory endurance also tracks reasonably well
from childhood through adolescence (24), therefore chil-
dren who have low cardiorespiratory endurance levels
also tend to have low levels throughout their adolescent
years and into adulthood.
FITNESSGRAM, designated as America’s youth
itness test by the President’s Council on Fitness, Sports
and Nutrition (https://www.presidentschallenge.org/chal-
lenge/pyfp.shtml), recommends the use of the Progressive
Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) or the
One-mile run/walk (1MRW) to assess aerobic capacity
(i.e., VO
2 Peak
). Although the 1MRW is still widely used as
a cardiorespiratory endurance ield test, it is the PACER,
developed by Leger and Lambert (18), which is FIT-
NESSGRAM’s primary (default) test. The PACER has
displayed correlation coeficients ranging from r = .60 to
.87 with measured VO
2 Peak
(19,23), and has demonstrated