Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 153 (2012) 1–15 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment jo ur n al homepage: www.elsevier.com/lo cate/agee Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States Terry L. Sohl a,∗ , Benjamin M. Sleeter b , Kristi L. Sayler a , Michelle A. Bouchard c , Ryan R. Reker c , Stacie L. Bennett d , Rachel R. Sleeter b , Ronald L. Kanengieter d , Zhiliang Zhu e a U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, 47914 252nd Street, Sioux Falls, SD 57198, USA b U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center, 345 Middlefield Road MS 531, Menlo Park, CA, 94025 USA c ARTS, Contractor to Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, 47914 252nd Street, Sioux Falls, SD, 57198, USA d SGT, Inc., Contractor to Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, 47914 252nd Street, Sioux Falls, SD 57198, USA e U.S. Geological Survey, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA20192, USA a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 22 September 2011 Received in revised form 13 February 2012 Accepted 28 February 2012 Keywords: Great Plains Scenario Land-use Land-cover Modeling United States a b s t r a c t The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey’s Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States. Published by Elsevier B.V. 1. Introduction The grasslands of the Great Plains are considered one of the most endangered ecosystems in North America (Samson et al., 2004; Cully et al., 2003), and have undergone the greatest reduc- tion in size of any North American ecosystem (Samson and Knopf, 1994). The conversion of Great Plains grasslands to agricultural land began around 1850, with a peak extent in cultivated land around 1940, and slight declines in agricultural extent since (Waisanen and Bliss, 2002). During that time, between 60% and 70% of land in the eastern Great Plains has been directly cultivated, while nearly 30% in the western Great Plains has been plowed (Hartman et al., 2011). Only 1% of the original tallgrass prairie remains in the region ∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 605 594 6537; fax: +1 605 594 6529. E-mail address: sohl@usgs.gov (T.L. Sohl). (Cully et al., 2003). Even in remaining prairie grasslands, there have been large declines in native species and declines in species diversity as planted monocultures of crested wheatgrass (Agropy- ron cristatum) have replaced native prairie in many locations, while exotic grasses such as smooth brome (Bromus inermis) and Ken- tucky bluegrass (Poa ptratensis) now comprise a large portion of prairie biomass in many prairies where the ground has never been broken (Lesica and DeLuca, 1996; Christian and Wilson, 1999; Cully et al., 2003). Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Great Plains have had dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes in the region. Water availability is the most important factor driv- ing land use in the Great Plains, with nearly 76 billion liters of water pumped from the High Plains aquifer every day for irriga- tion and for drinking water (U.S. Global Change Climate Program 2009). Moore and Rojstaczer (2001) note that the dramatic increase in irrigated agriculture in the Great Plains since 1950 represents 0167-8809/$ – see front matter. Published by Elsevier B.V. doi:10.1016/j.agee.2012.02.019