DETERRENCE IN THE AGE OF FANATICISM AND WMD December 4, 2007 Robert F. Trager Department of Political Science University of California, Los Angeles Dessislava P. Zagorcheva Department of Political Science Columbia and Oxford Universities To minimize the likelihood that Al Qaeda (AQ) is able to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the U.S. must dissuade terrorists and potential terrorists from continuing or taking up AQ’s cause. At the stage of WMD acquisition, coercive strategies exist to retard AQ’s progress. Elements of the AQ network can be dissuaded from providing essential assistance to the acquisition drive of the leadership, and appropriate strategies can convince potential AQ recruits to choose another path. On the other hand, at the employment stage, AQ operatives cannot be deterred, primarily because of the small number required to carry out attacks once all technical challenges have been overcome. The AQ leadership cannot be deterred from attempting to acquire WMD because the group is highly motivated and stands the best chance of achieving its key objectives through possessing them. The best hope of deterring the AQ leadership from using WMD once acquired, however, rests on diminished Muslim grievances against the US because the more positively the US is viewed, the greater will be the revulsion from WMD use among Muslim constituencies whose support AQ seeks to win. We thank Bob Pape and participants at a University of Chicago conference on new approaches to the study of terrorism for comments and suggestions. We can be contacted at rtrager@ucla.edu and dpz2@columbia.edu .