Probability and manipulation: Evolution and simulation in applied population genetics Forthcoming in Erkenntnis. Marshall Abrams (mabrams@uab.edu) Department of Philosophy University of Alabama at Birmingham November 1, 2015 Abstract I define a concept of causal probability and apply it to questions about the role of prob- ability in evolutionary processes. Causal probability is defined in terms of manipulation of patterns in empirical outcomes by manipulating properties that realize objective proba- bilities. The concept of causal probability allows us see how probabilities characterized by different interpretations of probability can share a similar causal character, and does so in such way as to allow new inferences about relationships between probabilities realized in different chance setups. I clarify relations between probabilities and properties defined in terms of them, and argue that certain widespread uses of computer simulations in evolu- tionary biology show that many probabilities relevant to evolutionary outcomes are causal probabilities. This supports the claim that higher-level properties such as biological fitness and processes such as natural selection are causal properties and processes, contrary to what some authors have argued. 1 Introduction I define the concept of causal probability in order to allow generalizations across in- terpretations of probability that play closely related roles in certain scientific con- texts. I use this concept to argue, against what some have claimed, that evolution- ary processes such as natural selection and random drift are causes of evolution. 1