www.iaset.us editor@iaset.us PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR THE AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF THE MAJOR PULSE CROPS IN DIFFERENT DISTRICTS OF NORTHERN HILLS OF CHHATTISGARH A. SAHU, M. L. LAKHERA & K. K. PANDEY Department of Agriculture, Statistics, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidhyalaya, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India ABSTRACT Three models has been used for the study of trend analysis of the Tur and Gram for the three district (Sarguja, Koria and Jaspur). Linear and Quadratic Models has been used for Sarjuja and Koria and used for Sarguja, Koria and Jaspur district. Present study period was 1979-80 to 2012-13, which divided into three group i.e. period- I (Pre-establishment of IGKV, Raipur: 1979-80 to 1986-87), period-II (Post-establishment of IGKV, Raipur and pre-period of M.P. and C.G. partition: 1987-88 to 1997-98), and period-III (Post-period of M.P. and C.G. partition: 1998-99 to 2012-13). CGR (%), CV (%) and Instability Index have been calculated for the respective periods and all three models. The studies is very necessary not only for understanding the growth trends and magnitude of fluctuations in crop production, but are also useful for scientific planning and effective implementation of agricultural developmental at different levels. KEYWORDS: CGR, CV, Exponential, Linear and Quadratic Models and Instability Index, etc INTRODUCTION Pulses occupy an important place in Indian agricultural economy as they are rich sources of proteins and constitute 10 to 15 per cent of India’s food grain diet. They are relatively the richest, cheapest and easiest source of best quality proteins and fats, have a vast multiplicity of uses as food and industrial products. India is the largest producer and consumer of pulses in the world accounting for 33 per cent of the world area and 22 per cent of world production and about 30 per cent of consumption. Pulses complement cereals in both production and consumption (Joshi and Saxena, 2002). About 90 percent of the total global area under pigeonpea, 65 percent under chickpea and 37 percent under lentil is contributed by India, with a corresponding share of production of 93 percent, 68 percent and 32 percent, respectively (Reddy, 2004). The important states engaged in growing pulses are Madhya Pradesh (22.90 %), Uttar Pradesh (18.12 %), Maharashtra (14.25 %), Rajasthan (10.84 %), Andhra Pradesh (8.64 %), Karnataka (5.76 %) and others (19.49 %). Shailendra, (2011) The total area, production and productivity was 22.46 (Mha), 10.63 million ton and 473 kg/ha respectively during 1980-81, which increased to 24.66 million hectares, 14.26 million ton and 578 kg/ha during 1990-91. During 2000-01, 20.35 (Mha), 11.08 million ton and 544 kg/ha. During 2000-01 the country imported about 4.73Mt of pulses export earnings were a little less crores which increased to 23.50 million hectares, 14.60 million ton and 689 kg/ha during 2010-11. Production of pulses during 2011-12 was 14.60 million tonnes which was slightly less than the 32.48 million International Journal of Applied Mathematics & Statistical Sciences (IJAMSS) ISSN(P): 2319- 3972; ISSN(E): 2319-3980 Vol. 4, Issue 6, Oct -Nov 2015, 45-52 © IASET