Successive Early Adoption of Technology Generations: The Case of Video Players Frank J. van Rijnsoever*, Utrecht University, f.vanrijnsoever@geo.uu.nl Harmen Oppewal, Monash University, Harmen.Oppewal@buseco.monash.edu.au Abstract This paper presents a model predicting whether a consumer will be an early adopter of a new generation of video players. Predictors are ownership and adoption times of previous product generations. The model is specified as a logistic regression model and is fitted using survey data on home entertainment products collected from an online panel. The models predict the likelihood of early adoption well. Less diffused products are predicted best by ownership of the previous generations alone, while more diffused products are better predicted by the actual time of adoption of a previous generation. Further, recent generations are more predictive than older generations in predicting early adoption. Keywords: new product adoption, diffusion, consumer behaviour, modelling Page 1 of 8 ANZMAC 2009