ORIGINAL ARTICLE Inter-annual variability of seed rain and seedling establishment of two woody Mediterranean species under field-induced drought and warming Montse del Cacho • Marc Estiarte • Josep Pen ˜ uelas • Francisco Lloret Received: 4 April 2012 / Accepted: 20 January 2013 / Published online: 27 February 2013 Ó The Society of Population Ecology and Springer Japan 2013 Abstract We aimed to assess the impact of warmer and drier climate change conditions on the seed rain and seedling establishment of Globularia alypum L. and Erica multiflora L., two dominant species in Western coastal Mediterranean shrublands. We performed a non-intrusive field experiment in which we increased the night-time temperatures and excluded spring and autumn rainfall. We monitored the seed rain over 5 years and the seedling recruitment over 9 years on these experimental plots. Seed rain of E. multiflora was enhanced by warming treatment in relation to control, and higher annual rainfall, while seed rain of G. alypum was increased by drought treatment in relation to control, dry years and higher minimum annual temperature. Annual rainfall enhanced the seedling emer- gence of both species, which also positively correlated with annual mean temperatures. Drought treatment significantly decreased seedling emergence for both species, which was higher in open areas than below vegetation cover. The seedling survival of both species diminished at closer dis- tances to competing neighbours, and in G. alypum seedling survival was higher with lower annual mean temperatures and higher annual rainfall, but also in drought treatment, which have experienced vegetation cover decline. The study confirms that the increasing aridity in Mediterranean ecosystems would constrain the early stages of develop- ment in typical co-occurring shrubs. However, there are contrasting responses to climatic conditions between spe- cies recruitment, which might favour changes in vegetation through modification of species relative abundance. Keywords Climate change Á Mediterranean-type ecosystems Á Micro-site Á Seedling Á Shrubland Á Vegetation patchiness Introduction Demographic processes play a crucial role in vegetation dynamics. The processes related to recruitment, such as seed rain and seedling establishment, are particularly important because they link the fruit and seed production of current standing vegetation with the establishment of individuals that will eventually constitute the future com- munity. These dynamics can be modified by both short- term climate conditions and long-term climate change (Weltzin and McPherson 2000; Jump et al. 2007). In Mediterranean-type ecosystems the contribution of demographic processes to vegetation dynamics has been extensively studied in relation to fire regime, but it has been less fully explored outside the disturbance context (for instance, Lloret et al. 2005). Specifically, ecosystems from the Mediterranean basin are regarded as highly sensitive to climate change (Fischlin et al. 2007), as drier and warmer conditions are expected in this region in the next decades (IPCC 2007): projections indicate an increase in seasonal temperature ranging from 1.2 °C in winter to 2 °C in summer, and a reduction in precipitation ranging from 4 % in winter to 10 % in summer for the period 2021–2040, in comparison to 1961–1980 (A1B scenario) (Giorgio and M. del Cacho Á M. Estiarte Á J. Pen ˜uelas Á F. Lloret CREAF, Cerdanyola del Valle `s, 08193 Barcelona, Spain M. del Cacho Á F. Lloret (&) Universidad Autonoma Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Valle `s, 08193 Barcelona, Spain e-mail: Francisco.Lloret@uab.cat M. Estiarte Á J. Pen ˜uelas CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CSIC-CEAB-CREAF-UAB, 08193 Barcelona, Spain 123 Popul Ecol (2013) 55:277–289 DOI 10.1007/s10144-013-0365-6