© Copyright by International OCSCO World Press. All rights reserved. 2012 Research paper 7
VOLUME 51
ISSUE 1
March
2012
of Achievements in Materials
and Manufacturing Engineering
of Achievements in Materials
and Manufacturing Engineering
Reliability estimation for manufacturing
processes
M. Kostina
a,
*, T. Karaulova
a
, J. Sahno
a
, M. Maleki
b
a
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Tallinn University of Technology,
Ehitajate tee 5, Tallinn, Estonia
b
UNIDEMI, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering,
Faculdade de Ciencias e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal
* Corresponding e-mail address: marina.pribytkova@gmail.com
Received 11.01.2012; published in revised form 01.03.2012
Analysis and modelling
ABSTRACT
Purpose: of the current research is to develop a reliability assessment method with an extension of the
existing ones and pooling them to a common framework. The system must identify the most unreliable parts of
a production process and suggest the most efficient ways for the reliability improvement.
Design/methodology/approach: FMEA is in the centre of the proposed framework,a reliability analysis
type, the most widely used in enterprises. The current research suggests to extend the FMEA by introducing
a classification of faults. In this procedure, Bayesian Belief Network is employed to analyze faults.
Findings: An integrated modelling method based on a system modelling and complemented with a reliability
evaluation mechanism has the capability to analyse and design manufacturing systems. The tool developed
to analyse a production process, enables companies to analyse the process as a whole as well as its parts and
achieve efficient prognosis for the production process reorganization.
Research limitations/implications: The reliability analysis framework is developed for machinery manufacturing
enterprises.
Practical implications: The reliability assessment tool helps engineers quickly and with accurate estimate most
unreliable places of production process and indicates ways of their elimination with great efficiency.
Originality/value: Expansion of FMEA method, application of Bayesian Belief Network for process reliability
estimation, usage of reliability estimation during production route creation.
Keywords: Process reliability; Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA); Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)
Reference to this paper should be given in the following way:
M. Kostina, T. Karaulova, J. Sahno, M. Maleki, Reliability estimation for manufacturing processes, Journal
of Achievements in Materials and Manufacturing Engineering 51/1 (2012) 7-13.
1. Introduction
The globalisation of markets, growth of customers’
expectations, widening competition in all spheres of relation
between the customer and the supplier are the factors which at
present extort the quality exhibiting in the strategy of the
enterprise. Quality in the competitive world means the necessity
of fulfilment of commited and waited customer’s requirements
who occupies the leading position on the market [1]. Quality of
production process means reliable and sustainable process.
Therefore the common objective of industrial enterprises is to
increase the overall production reliability. In another words, they
look for output maximization of their current resources, by
reduction of wastes in equipment and process reliability.
Equipment and process reliability jointly create reliable
production.
The system reliability assessment and prediction has become
an increasingly important aspect of the process operating different
1. Introduction