IAALD AFITA WCCA2008 WORLD CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURAL INFORMATION AND IT Clilmate Analogies and Risk Analysis of Hungarian Viticulture Karoly Szenteleki 1 , Levente Horvath 2 and Márta Ladányi 3 1 Corvinus University of Budapest, H-1118 Budapest, Villányi út 29, Hungary, karoly.szenteleki@uni-corvinus.hu 2 MTA-BCE Adaptation to climate change research group, H-1118 Budapest, Villányi út 29, Hungary, levente.horvath@uni-corvinus.hu 3 Corvinus University of Budapest, H-1118 Budapest, Villányi út 29, Hungary, marta.ladanyi@uni-corvinus.hu Abstract The Department of Mathematics and Informatics of Corvinus University of Budapest can be considered one of the higher level Hungarian climate research centres. Current studies at our department, which have enormous scope—like everywhere else in the world—demand two things: - meteorological databases - large secondary databases (heterogeneous in content and structure and multi-disciplinary: agriculture, health, etc.) To collect, organize, manage and search such databases it was necessary to create a special database system (VIN-MET). It allows researchers and stakeholders to set up special databases for specific studies as well as having the capacity to filter and aggregate data from different perspectives. Several climate models were elaborated to predict the climate change tendencies. Our target (reference) site was Tokaj, an important centre of viticulture in Hungary. Scenario values for Tokaj were calculating from the TYN SC 1.0 10 minute resolution grid climatic database, in different time periods. Then the method of spatial analogies was used to understand the meaning of these scenario values. Spatial (geographical) analogues are regions which today have a climate analogous to that predicted in the study region in the future. It has been found that regions similar to the predicted future climate of Tokaj are located south to Hungary. At the closest time this distance is about 150-350 km. Climate change and its expected impacts on viticulture of Hungary are considered and the reasons and consequences of risk increase are explored. As a result of a synthesized analysis of international and national literature we fix some weather indicators which may significantly define grapevine production. Based on RegCM scenarios we introduce the expected change of these weather indicators and formulate some conclusions for Hungary. Keywords: viticulture, climate change, data management, weather indicators, climate analogies The VIN-MET database Meteorological and viticultural data are coming from several sources and are to be applied for quite different kinds of purposes. In the planned paper we introduce ‘VIN-MET database management system for viticultural climate change research’ which was developed by the 389