Use of Stochastic Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to Support Sustainable Management of Contaminated Sediments Magnus Sparrevik,* ,†,‡ David N. Barton, § Mathew E. Bates, ⊥ and Igor Linkov ⊥ † Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, PO Box 3930 Ullevå l Stadion, NO-0806 Oslo, Norway ‡ Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway § Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Gaustadalle ́ en 21, NO-0349 Oslo, Norway ⊥ Environmental Laboratory, Engineer Research and Development Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 696 Virginia Road, Concord, Massachusetts 01742, United States * S Supporting Information ABSTRACT: Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p- dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs. ■ INTRODUCTION Management of contamination in urban coastal zones is often characterized by large affected areas and complexity in the causes and relationships in contaminant pathways between sources and receptors such as biota, marine life, and humans. 1 The contaminant sources may have a local origin such as effluent release from present or former industrial sites, or the source may be diffuse such as urban runoff or long-range transport of pollution. Each of these sources may contribute to increased contamination levels in sediments and water. One way to address this complexity in decision making is to use human and ecological risk assessments (HERA), elucidating causal mechanisms and assessing adverse health and ecological impacts associated with contaminated sites. Using multiple lines of evidence related to level of chemical contamination, toxicity, and observed changes at the affected receptors, the total risk is assessed by comparison to acceptable conservative guideline values in sediments and water. 2 However, basing management solely on the use of precautionary health and ecological risk assessments may be insufficient, since the costs and wider societal benefits or risks associated with management alternatives are often overlooked. This single-criterion focus and natural desire to be cautious may promote extensive remediation strategies potentially with significant costs and negative environmental impacts. 3 Moreover, such a method does not provide a foundation for sustainable management of contaminated sediments, often defined by concern for environ- mental, economic, and social aspects simultaneously. 4 Strategies for modeling the effect of sustainable industrial development have been developed earlier. 5 A similar approach addressing these issues within a single decision framework for contaminated sediment management would therefore be beneficial. A decision- support approach explicitly addressing uncertainty and value plurality has also been called for in recent EU and UN initiatives on the economics of ecosystems and biodiversity. 6 Several analytical methods can indeed complement HERA to provide a more holistic perspective on sustainable management Received: June 29, 2011 Revised: December 19, 2011 Accepted: December 20, 2011 Published: December 20, 2011 Policy Analysis pubs.acs.org/est © 2011 American Chemical Society 1326 dx.doi.org/10.1021/es202225x | Environ. Sci. Technol. 2012, 46, 1326-1334