Ecological Modelling 123 (1999) 207 – 223 Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca ) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous Jacoby Carter a, *, Azmy S. Ackleh b , Billy P. Leonard c , Haibin Wang d a US Geological Surey -National Wetlands Research Center, 700 Cajundome Bouleard, Lafayette, LA 70506 -3152, USA b Department of Mathematics, Uniersity of Southwestern Louisiana, Lafayette, LA 70504, USA c Department of Biology, Uniersity of Southwestern Louisiana, Lafayette, LA 70504, USA d Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, Uniersity of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA Accepted 15 June 1999 Abstract The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history. © 1999 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. Keywords: Giant panda; Ailuropoda melanoleuca ; Bamboo; Population dynamics; Population viability analysis; China; Life history; Leslie matrix www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel 1. Introduction Giant pandas, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, (here- after, pandas) live in the bamboo forests of six * Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-318-266-8620; fax: +1- 318-266-8586. E-mail address: jacoby – carter@usgs.gov (J. Carter) 0304-3800/99/$ - see front matter © 1999 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. PII:S0304-3800(99)00145-3