A model for predicting mortality among critically ill burn victims Rita Galeiras a , Jose ´ A. Lorente b, *, Sonia Pe ´rtega a , Alfonso Vallejo c , Vinko Tomicic d , Miguel A. de la Cal b , Salvador Pita a , Enrique Cerda ´ b , Andre ´s Esteban b a Hospital Juan Canalejo, A Corun ˜ a, Spain b Hospital Universitario de Getafe; Centro de Investigacio ´n de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CibeRes); and Universidad Europea, Madrid, Spain c Hospital Gregorio Maran ˜o ´ n, Madrid, Spain d Hospital Alema ´ n, Santiago de Chile, Chile 1. Introduction The outcome of thermal trauma is closely associated with variables such as presence of inhalation injury, body surface area (BSA) burned and age [1]. However, inhalation injury is difficult to quantify [2] and, although generally accepted as a prognostic factor, some studies have failed to show a relationship between inhalation injury and outcome [3,4]. Also, the relative prognostic significance of full-thickness BSA (FTBSA) versus total (TBSA) BSA burned remains unsettled. Finally, regression models generally used to study the association between different variables and mortality prog- nosis often assume a linear relationship, but an analysis that took into consideration a more complex relationship might be more appropriate. In this study we analysed the relationship between demographic variables and outcome among people admitted to an intensive care burn unit (ICBU). Our objectives were, first, to clarify the relationship between the requirement of mechanical ventilation after trauma and mortality. We observed that some individuals might have mild inhalation injury and yet do well without mechanical ventilation, burns 35 (2009) 201–209 article info Article history: Accepted 7 July 2008 Keywords: Mechanical ventilation Inhalation Burns Mortality abstract Objective: To develop a model for predicting mortality among burn victims. Methods: All casualties admitted to our intensive care burn unit (ICBU) with a diagnosis of thermal or inhalation injury were studied. Age, total and full-thickness body surface area (BSA) burned, presence of inhalation injury, gender, mechanism of injury, delay to ICBU admission and mechanical ventilation during the first 72 h were recorded. The 851 participants were randomly divided into derivation (671) and validation (180) sets. From univariate and multi- variate logistic regression analyses a mortality predictive equation was derived. Results: Mortality was 17.6%. In univariate analysis, all variables were significantly asso- ciated with mortality except mechanism of injury and delay to ICBU admission. In multi- variate analysis, age, total and full-thickness BSA burned, female gender and early mechanical ventilation were independently associated with mortality. Conclusions: We propose a mortality predictive equation for burned victims. In this model, MV and not inhalation injury is a mortality risk factor. # 2008 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved. * Corresponding author at: Servicio de Cuidados Intensivos/Grandes Quemados, Hospital Universitario de Getafe, 28905 Madrid, Spain. Tel.: +34 91 6834982. E-mail address: jalorente@ucigetafe.com (J.A. Lorente). available at www.sciencedirect.com journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/burns 0305-4179/$36.00 # 2008 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.burns.2008.07.019