A GDSS-based Approach to the Strategy Analysis of Forest Industries Jukka Korpela UPM-Kymmene Corporation 00101 Helsinki, Finland Pentti Sierilä and Markku Tuominen Lappeenranta University of Technology P.O. Box 20, 53851 Lappeenranta, Finland Abstract In this paper, we present the results of a study where a GDSS-approach was used for a SWOT-based strategy analysis of the Finnish forest industries. Forest industries belong to the basic, strategic industries in the world, and they have a great importance for the Finnish economy. This study is the first part of a research program that aims at finding visions and alternative strategies in the field of forest industries, and at developing new scientific methods. The program is a learning process where one central tool is the GroupSystems-software. Thus, the con- tribution of the program is both methodological and gives new knowledge for forest industries. In this paper, the focus is on describing how the first part of the Finnish forest industries SWOT-analysis was conducted in a GDSS-laboratory by using the GroupSystems-tool. The study included the identification and prioritisation of the environmental change factors, i.e. threats and opportuni- ties, faced by the Finnish forest industries in the future. 1. Introduction The aim of this paper is to present the results of a study where a GDSS-approach was used for a SWOT-based strategy analysis. The study is the first part of a large re- search program that aims at finding visions and alternative strategies in the field of forest industries, and at develop- ing new scientific methods. The program is a step-by-step ongoing learning process where one central tool is the GroupSystems-tool. Thus, the contribution of the program and this sub-study is both methodological and gives new knowledge for forest industries. Forest industries as such belong to the basic, strategic industries in the world. Forest industries operate world wide, and their role in the economies of many countries is most essential. Of course, the importance of this industrial branch varies from country to country. In Finland we are particularly interested in what happens in these industries and how their future looks like. The share of forest prod- ucts in Finnish total exports is 30 % and the share of print- ing and writing papers of the total world exports 25 % [1]. In addition, Finnish companies have become global and their cluster effects on metal, chemical, information, and etc. industries are substantial [2]. The products of forest industries are very strategic in- deed, particularly paper which has been and is so far the most important carrier of information. Paper is the basis of modern civilisation and print has been the historical me- dium for mass communication. Thus it is more than justi- fied to add knowledge of alternative and probable futures of forest industries by scientific methods. The main objective of the research programme is to study visions of the forest industries. The concept “vision” refers in this connection to the state of the forest industries in the distant future covering a time span of more than 10 years. The aim is not to define a single vision for the in- dustry, but more to explore the possible development paths the industry might face in the future. On the other hand, the future development paths are not accepted as they emerge as the aim is to define alternative strategies and action plans for steering the forest industries towards a successful future measured in terms of e.g. financial well being. Another main objective of the research programme is to study and develop the applicability of group decision support systems in this area of research. This methodo- logical development concerns especially the utilisation of the GroupSystems –software which is the main tool used in the research. In addition to gaining in-depth knowledge about the future development of forest industries, the re- search process and the achieved results are studied in terms of gaining experience and new ideas about the effec- tive utilisation of group decision support tools. 2. The concept of forest industries The industry area studied here is forest industries. As a concept it can be determined in several ways depending on the factors emphasised. Such factors are, e.g., certain sub-areas like paper industry or marketing or products. In this study the scope is very large covering compre- hensively the whole chain “from the stump to the cus- tomer” [3]. So, in this context, also some tasks of forestry 0-7695-0981-9/01 $10.00 (c) 2001 IEEE 1 Proceedings of the 34th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2001