SPECIAL ARTICLE may 14, 2011 vol xlvi no 20 EPW Economic & Political Weekly 48 Political Change in Burma: Transition from Democracy to Military Dictatorship (1948-62) Nehginpao Kipgen Nehginpao Kipgen (nehginpao@yahoo.com) is a doctoral candidate in political science at Northern Illinois University, Illinois, United States. A historic agreement to form the Union of Burma was reached in Panglong in 1947 between representatives of various groups from the “frontier areas” – the Chins, Kachins, the Shans – and also ethnic Burmans from “Burma proper”. The decade following independence from the British in 1948 was marred by insurgency problems and political conflicts that constantly threatened the peace and stability of the fledgling democracy. While ethnic minorities demanded autonomy/federalism, the communist insurgents demanded a replacement of parliamentary democracy. The military, reluctant to concede federal demands, eventually took power in a coup in 1962. B urma, also known as Myanmar, gained independence from the British on 4 January 1948 (Human Rights Docu- mentation Unit 2003: 8). A year before independence, leaders of different ethnic groups (the Chins, the Kachins, the Shans, and the Burmans) converged at Panglong (a town in former Shan states) to form the Union of Burma (Fink 2001: 23). The country’s ethnic composition is one of the most complex mixes in the world, with over 100 languages and dialects. It is administra- tively divided into states and divisions: ethnic Burmans predomi- nantly inhabit the divisions and the states are homes to ethnic minorities – Arakan (Rakhine), Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni (Kayah), Mon, and Shan (Smith 1999: 30). Since before independ- ence, Burma has witnessed ethno-political conlicts, which still exists today. After a decade of parliamentary democracy, the mili- tary staged a coup d’état on 2 March 1962 (Fink 2001: 29). Over 60 years have passed since independence, but the simmering tension between ethnic minorities and the ethnic Burman-led central government continues. The article examines ethnic diversity, the role groups played in the making of the Union of Burma, and in the subsequent events leading up to the military coup in 1962. While recognising the existence of other smaller sub-ethnic groups, this article focuses on the relations between the eight major groups – Arakan (Rakhine), Burman, Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni (Kayah), Mon, Shan, and the nature of the civilian government and its relations with the military. The article examines the inherent role of ethnicity in political transition from democracy to military dictatorship (Fink 2001: 23). It argues that ethnic minorities’ demand for autonomy/federalism was the primary cause for the military coup. The present-day statistics in Burma are contentious because no reliable census information has been made available since independence. Smith (1999: 30) argues that the government deliberately manipulated the population igure to downplay the number of ethnic minorities. For example, according to the 1931 Census, the total population of Karen and its related subgroups such as Pao and Karenni (Kayah) was recorded to be 13,67,673. The igure of ethnic Burman families, including Rakhine, was put at 65% of the total population, the Karen just over 9%, the Shan at 7%, the Chin and Mon some 2% each, the Kachin, Palaung-Wa and Chinese at just over 1% each, and the Indian (many have left the country since then) at around 7%. During the second world war, the Japanese conducted their own survey and put the Karen population at 4.5 million. Minorities believed that the population igures were deeply lawed and misrepresented.