How do great powers respond to acute decline? The erosion of the relative power of the United States has scholars and policymakers reexamining this question. The central issue is whether prompt retrenchment is desirable or probable. Some pessi- mists counsel that retrenchment is a dangerous policy, because it shows weak- ness and invites attack. Robert Kagan, for example, warns, “A reduction in defense spending . . . would unnerve American allies and undercut efforts to gain greater cooperation. There is already a sense around the world, fed by ir- responsible pundits here at home, that the United States is in terminal decline. Many fear that the economic crisis will cause the United States to pull back from overseas commitments. The announcement of a defense cutback would be taken by the world as evidence that the American retreat has begun.” 1 Robert Kaplan likewise argues, “Husbanding our power in an effort to slow America’s decline in a post-Iraq and post-Afghanistan world would mean avoiding debilitating land entanglements and focusing instead on being more of an offshore balancer .... While this may be in America’s interest, the very signaling of such an aloof intention may encourage regional bullies.... [L]essening our engagement with the world would have devastating conse- quences for humanity. The disruptions we witness today are but a taste of what is to come should our country ºinch from its international responsibili- ties.” 2 The consequences of these views are clear: retrenchment should be avoided and forward defenses maintained into the indeªnite future. 3 Other observers advocate retrenchment policies, but they are pessimistic Graceful Decline? Graceful Decline? Paul K. MacDonald and Joseph M. Parent The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment Paul K. MacDonald is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Williams College. Joseph M. Parent is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami. The authors would like to thank Stacie Goddard, Robert Jervis, Roger Kanet, Christopher Layne, Jack Levy, James McAllister, Shany Mor, Abigail Parent, Mark Sandman, Jack Snyder, Kenneth Waltz, participants at the University of Miami Faculty Paper Series, and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. 1. Robert Kagan, “No Time to Cut Defense,” Washington Post, February 3, 2009. 2. Robert D. Kaplan, “Where’s the American Empire When We Need It?” Washington Post, Decem- ber 3, 2010. 3. For a theoretical justiªcation of this position, see Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1983), pp. 192–197, 232; Samuel P. Huntington, “Why In- ternational Primacy Matters,” International Security, Vol. 17, No. 4 (Spring 1993), p. 70; and Dale C. Copeland, The Origins of Major War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2000), p. 43. International Security, Vol. 35, No. 4 (Spring 2011), pp. 7–44 © 2011 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 7