Proceedings of the ASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences &
Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
IDETC/CIE 2012
August 12-15, 2012, Chicago, IL, USA
DETC2012/DTM-70399
TOWARD CONSIDERING RISK ATTITUDES IN ENGINEERING ORGANIZATIONS
USING UTILITY THEORY
Douglas Van Bossuyt
*
Complex Engineered Systems
Design Laboratory
School of Mechanical, Industrial,
and Manufacturing Engineering
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR 97331
Email: douglas.vanbossuyt@gmail.com
Chris Hoyle
Complex Engineered Systems
Design Laboratory
School of Mechanical, Industrial,
and Manufacturing Engineering
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR 97331
Chris.Hoyle@oregonstate.edu
Irem Y. Tumer
Complex Engineered Systems
Design Laboratory
School of Mechanical, Industrial,
and Manufacturing Engineering
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR 97331
Irem.Tumer@oregonstate.edu
Andy Dong
Design Lab
Faculty of Architecture,
Design, and Planning
University of Sydney
Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia
Andy.Dong@sydney.edu.au
Toni Doolen
School of Mechanical, Industrial,
and Manufacturing Engineering
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR 97331
Toni.Doolen@oregonstate.edu
Richard Malak
Design Systems Laboratory
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Texas A&M University
College Station, Texas 77843
rmalak@tamu.edu
ABSTRACT
Design projects within large engineering organizations in-
volve numerous uncertainties that can lead to unacceptably high
levels of risk. Practicing designers recognize the existence of risk
and commonly are aware of events that raise risk levels. How-
ever, a disconnect exists between past project performance and
current project execution that limits decision-making. This dis-
connect is primarily due to a lack of quantitative models that
can be used for rational decision-making. Methods and tools
used to make decisions in risk-informed design generally use an
expected value approach. Research in the psychology domain
has shown that decision-makers and stakeholders have domain-
specific risk attitudes that often have variations between individ-
uals and between companies. Risk methods used in engineer-
ing such as Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Fault
*
Address all correspondence to this author.
Tree Analysis (FTA), and others are often ill-equipped to help
stakeholders make decisions based upon risk-tolerant or risk-
averse decision-making conditions. This paper focuses on the
specific issue of helping stakeholders make decisions under risk-
tolerant or risk-averse decision-making conditions and presents
a novel method of translating engineering risk data from the do-
main of expected value into a domain corrected for risk attitude.
This is done by using risk utility functions derived from the
Engineering-Domain-Specific Risk-T aking (E-DOSPERT) test.
This method allows decisions to be made based upon data that is
risk attitude corrected. Further, the method uses an aspirational
measure of risk attitude as opposed to existing lottery methods
of generating utility functions that are based upon past perfor-
mance. An illustrative test case using a simplified space mis-
sion designed in a collaborative design center environment is in-
cluded. The method is shown to change risk-informed decisions
1 Copyright © 2012 by ASME