ORIGINAL ARTICLE The combined effects of land-use legacies and novel fire regimes on bird distributions in the Mediterranean Miquel De C aceres 1,2 *, Llu  ıs Brotons 1,2,3 ,N uria Aquilu e 1 and Marie-Jos ee Fortin 4 1 CTFC (Forest Science Center of Catalonia), Solsona, Catalonia, Spain, 2 CREAF (Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries), Autonomous University of Barcelona, Bellaterra, Catalonia, Spain, 3 Institut Catal a d’Ornitologia (ICO), Museu de Zoologia, 08003, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain, 4 Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, M5S 3G5, Canada *Correspondence: Miquel De C aceres, Centre Tecnol ogic Forestal de Catalunya, Ctra. St. Llorenc ß de Morunys km 2, E-25280 Solsona, Catalonia, Spain. E-mail: miquelcaceres@gmail.com ABSTRACT Aim We investigate first whether fire regimes resulting from the combination of climate change and fire-fighting policy may affect species distributions in Mediterranean landscapes, and second to what extent distributional dynamics may be constrained by the spatial legacy of historical land use. Location Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). Methods We modelled the distributional responses of 64 forest and open- habitat bird species to nine fire-regime scenarios, defined by combining differ- ent levels of climate change and fire suppression efficiency. A fire-succession model was used to stochastically simulate land-cover changes between 2000 and 2050 under these scenarios. We used species distribution models to predict habitat suitability and occupancy dynamics under either no dispersal or full dispersal assumptions. Results Under many simulated scenarios, the succession from shrubland to forest dominated over the creation of new low-vegetation areas derived from wildfires. Consequently, open-habitat specialists were the group most affected by losses of suitable habitat. Fire regimes obtained under scenarios including high fire suppression efficiency resulted in a larger number of bird species experiencing reductions in their distribution area. Main conclusions Anthropogenic factors, such as historical land-use change and fire suppression, can drive regional distribution dynamics in directions opposite to those expected from climatic trends. This raises the question of what drivers and interactions should be given priority in the prediction of bio- diversity responses to global change at the regional scale. Keywords Biogeography, Catalonia, climate change effects, fire suppression, forest birds, habitat suitability model, land abandonment, open-habitat birds. INTRODUCTION Global change has received a great deal of attention in recent decades owing to the observed effects on natural ecosystems, as well as the changes expected to occur in the near future (Parme- san & Yohe, 2003; La Sorte & Jetz, 2010). Most estimates of glo- bal change effects on biodiversity have been conducted so far using either correlative (e.g. Thomas et al., 2004; Huntley et al., 2008; Tingley et al., 2009; Barbet-Massin et al., 2012) or mecha- nistic (Chuine & Beaubien, 2001; Kearney & Porter, 2009; Monahan, 2009) niche models. Regardless of the specific model used, a recurrent feature of these modelling exercises is that effects on species distributions are implemented in a single modelling step. An alternative two-step approach consists of first predicting global change effects on vegetation patterns and then using habitat preferences of the target species to predict distributional changes (e.g. Akc ßakaya et al., 2005; White et al., 2011). The first step can be conducted using a landscape simula- tion model (Keane et al., 2004), while for the second step one can develop correlative habitat distribution models or more complex approaches (Gallien et al., 2010). This two-step model- ling strategy has the advantage of addressing the combined effects of land-use changes, climate change and vegetation dynamics in landscape model simulations, as these factors are known to be critical for the persistence of many species (e.g. Jetz et al., 2007). Although several kinds of predictors can be ª 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/jbi 1535 doi:10.1111/jbi.12111 Journal of Biogeography (J. Biogeogr.) (2013) 40, 1535–1547