Climatic Change (2006) 79:315–333 DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9098-2 Regionally optimized forest management under changing climate T. Nuutinen · J. Matala · H. Hirvel¨ a · K. H ¨ ark¨ onen · H. Peltola · H. V ¨ ais¨ anen · S. Kellom¨ aki Received: 3 August 2004 / Accepted: 27 December 2005 / Published online: 4 November 2006 C  Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2006 Abstract The purpose of this study was to optimize forest management for a forest region (the total area of forest and scrub land 1.54 mill. ha) under changing climate by using the large-scale forestry scenario model MELA and sample plot data from the geo-referenced National Forest Inventory (NFI). The MELA model is based on integrated simulation and optimisation; in the simulation it utilises empirical tree-level models into which the impacts of climate change were introduced by transfer variables derived by using the physiological model FinnFor. Six scenarios with differences in climate and forest management were defined. In simulations, the accelerating tree growth caused by climate change resulted in an increase in maximum sustainable removal of trees at regional level. Changes in regionally optimized forest management were also detected during the analysis period of 30 years; the proportion of thinnings increased because the stands fulfilled the thinning requirements earlier than in the current climate. This study was the first attempt to solve endogenously maximum sustainable timber production and corresponding forest management at the regional level under different climate scenarios. When implemented in the MELA system, which is widely used in Finnish forestry, the transfer variables offer means of disseminating the results from physiological studies to planning of adjustment and mitigation measures under changing climate. 1 Introduction An increase of up to 2–4 ◦ C in annual mean temperature (T) along with concurrent doubling of the atmospheric CO 2 can be expected in Northern Europe by the year 2100 (Parry 2000; IPCC 2001; Carter et al. 2002). For example, in Finland the growth of trees is currently limited mainly by low summer temperatures and short growing season as well as by shortages in T. Nuutinen () · J. Matala Finnish Forest Research Institute, P.O. Box 68, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland e-mail: Tuula.Nuutinen@metla.fi H. Peltola · H. V¨ ais¨ anen · S. Kellom¨ aki Faculty of Forestry, University of Joensuu, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland H. Hirvel¨ a · K. H¨ ark¨ onen Finnish Forest Research Institute, Unioninkatu 40 A, FI-00170 Helsinki, Finland Springer