Suarez and Patt page 1 Cognition, Caution, and Credibility: The Risks of Climate Forecast Application Pablo Suarez, Boston University Anthony Patt, Boston University and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Draft - 3 December 2002 Abstract Weather and climate forecasters are now in the business of communicating seasonal climate forecasts to decision-makers. While it seems clear that these forecasts carry a great many potential benefits, it also appears possible that conveying too much information about the forecasts could have the potential to harm people. Based on theories from behavioral economics, we argue that many people are likely to overestimate the potential dangers of forecasts, and to err on the side of communicating too little information. We support this argument with evidence gathered over the last three years in Zimbabwe, in a project designed to help subsistence farmers understand and use seasonal rainfall forecasts. 1 Introduction Seasonal climate forecasts based on El Niño have the potential to help million of people. By knowing with a greater degree of accuracy what weather the coming year may bring, people can plan ahead. Seasonal rainfall forecasts can allow farmers to plant more appropriate varieties of seeds, food security officials to prepare for potential food shortfalls, water managers either conserve or make power, as appropriate. Responding to this potential for putting information to use, multiple organizations have started working together to produce and apply useful seasonal climate forecasts. The best example of this response is in the annual series of Regional Climate Outlook Forums, an effort initiated by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Office of Global Programs (NOAA-OGP) in cooperation with food security organizations (numerous early warning systems) and national meteorological offices. The first of these was the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF), and has been taking place annually since 1997. National meteorological offices in many of the countries in the region have established close linkages with the World Meteorological Organization sponsored Drought Monitoring Centre. In Zimbabwe, the national Department of Meteorological Services has become a model of successful networking building between climatologists from around the world, the food security early warning system, and the national media. Meteorologists appear regularly on the radio to discuss the forecasts for the season, and the office commands a high degree of respect. Seasonal forecasts can also hurt people, especially farmers. If there is a forecast of drought, banks have a history of restraining credit for farming inputs, so that even drought tolerant crops become impossible to grow. Farmers sometimes misunderstand the