04 ★ EuroChoices 14(3) © 2015 Agricultural Economics Society and European Association of Agricultural Economists (EAAE)
DOI: 10.1111/1746-692X.12103
Guest Editorial
Meat and Milk Consumption 2050: the Potential
for Demand-side Solutions to Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Reduction
La consommation de viande et de produits laitiers en 2050 : le
potentiel d’approches axées sur la demande pour réduire les
émissions de gaz à effet de serre
Fleisch- und Milchverbrauch 2050: Das Potenzial nachfrageseitiger
Lösungen zur Senkung der Treibhausgasemissionen
Brian Revell
The 21
st
United Nations Climate
Change Conference in Paris (30
November–11 December 2015) aims
to achieve a binding agreement on
reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions from all countries by the
target date 2030. The Intergovernmen-
tal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in
its latest report on global warming has
highlighted both the size of the
problem and possible pathways to
reduce emissions (IPCC, 2014). Whilst
the IPCC left the reader rather to draw
their own conclusions, a more recent
report has unequivocally stated that
the likelihood of meeting the tempera-
ture target of limiting the rise in global
temperatures to less than 2°C by 2100
compared with the late 19
th
century
with current policies, ‘… will not be
possible unless the EU achieves its
goal of an 80 per cent reduction by
mid-century, the US and China both
accelerate their progress, dramatically
reducing their coal consumption in the
next two decades, and India displaces
its anticipated increase in coal
consumption with an expansion of
solar and other renewables. Other
countries and regions must follow suit,
with non-fossil technologies ultimately
becoming disruptive for supporting
economic development goals’ (King
et al., 2015). Such is the nature of the
global challenge being addressed.
The IPCC report (IPCC, 2014)
identified agriculture and land use
change, at just under 12 Gt CO
2
eq.,
as contributing 24 per cent of total
global anthropogenic GHG emissions,
though a declining share since 2000.
FAO has estimated that some 6.2 Gt
of annual GHG emissions come from
livestock production alone (Gerber
et al., 2013), with over 5 Gt from
ruminant milk and meat production,
83 per cent of the total. The meat and
dairy sectors thus contribute about 57
per cent of agricultural GHG emis-
sions. We can therefore be sure that
agriculture and its livestock sector
will feature in the debates and
proposals of many individual coun-
tries for emissions reductions.
However, individual country propos-
als and the multinational Paris
negotiations will inevitably involve
trade-offs of emissions reductions
against other objectives and criteria.
These will include issues of equity,
economic efficiency, food security,
ethics, environment and biodiversity
that depend on the population size,
Cattle raising. Inner Mongolia
Professor Brian Revell, President of the
Agricultural Economics Society, UK