901 P. Tow et al. (eds.), Rainfed Farming Systems, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4020-9132-2_35,
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011
Abstract Rainfed agricultural production systems in a semi-arid climate operate
under high risk. While weather variability is the major source of risk over much
of Australia, other sources of risk include finance, markets, human resources, and
changes in government policy. Most farmers employ a range of strategies to manage
these risks. A comprehensive risk management program has to take many complex
interactions into account and decision support systems (DSS) have been designed
(as their name suggests) to offer assistance in making some of these decisions.
However, DSS are not widely used by farmers as they often address only part of the
risk management problem and may do that in a way that is too complex for many
farmers to understand. In addition, many farmers believe that their tried and tested
strategies for managing risk are satisfactory. For better adoption, each DSS should
be easy to use and provide local information. The use of DSS to stimulate discus-
sion and appreciation of the complexity of managing risk by farmers and students
of agriculture suggests that ‘discussion support’ might be a more appropriate term.
After a series of interactions with a group of rainfed cropping farmers in south-
west Queensland, a decision support tool (‘Key to dryland planting decisions’) for
rainfed farms in south-west Queensland was developed. It uses Lucid3 software to
capture the timing and logic of the decision-making process and structures the pro-
cess to select preferred crop planting options for both summer and winter planting
periods from a wide range of possibilities.
N.C. Nguyen (
*
)
School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland,
Gatton Campus, QLD 4343, Australia
and
Faculty of Real Estate and Resource Economics, National Economics University,
Hanoi, Vietnam
e-mail: n.nguyen@uq.edu.au
M. Wegener and I. Russell
School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland,
Gatton Campus, QLD 4343, Australia
Chapter 35
Risk Management Strategies and Decision
Support Systems in Agriculture
A Study of Risk Management in Rainfed Farming
Systems in Queensland, Australia
Nam Cao Nguyen, Malcolm Wegener, and Iean Russell