Mortality parameters of the wolf in Italy: does the wolf keep himself from the door? S. Lovari 1 , A. Sforzi 1 , C. Scala 2 & R. Fico 3 1 Section of Behavioural Ecology, Ethology and Wildlife Management, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Siena, Siena, Italy 2 Department of Quantitative Methods, University of Siena, Siena, Italy 3 Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale ‘G. Caporale’, Campo Boario, Teramo, Italy Keywords Canis lupus; survivorship; road kills; reproduction; population structure. Correspondence Sandro Lovari, Section of Behavioural Ecology, Ethology and Wildlife Management, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Siena, via P.A. Mattioli 4, I-53100 Siena, Italy. Tel: 39 0577 232955; Fax: 39 0577 232825 Email: lovari@unisi.it Received 18 May 2006; accepted 14 August 2006 doi:10.1111/j.1469-7998.2006.00260.x Abstract Information on population parameters is rarely collected from carcasses. This method can be particularly useful – with limitations – when protected species are involved (e.g. the grey wolf Canis lupus in Italy). Local data on population structure, reproduction, survivorship and causes of mortality are necessary to build reliable conservation models to assess the state of a population and to predict its evolution. On the other hand, ‘best guesses’ or data from ecologically different areas have often been used to build population viability analysis and other conservation-oriented models. A sample of 154 wolf carcasses was found, collected and analysed from 1991 to 2001 in central-eastern Italy, the historic core of the wolf distribution range. Collision with a vehicle was the main cause of death in both sexes; however, road kills may be biased with a greater detectability, and we treated our data accordingly. Road kills were concentrated on the younger (  4 years old) age classes, whereas fully adult wolves died mainly because of poaching, intraspecific strife and pathologies. Cubs and subadults ( 2 years old) showed a mortality peak in November/December, at the beginning of the dispersal period, whereas adults died mainly in January/February (mating season). The population structure of our sample of wolf carcasses appeared to be well balanced, although perinatal and cub mortality was underestimated. The sex ratio was 1:1 in the younger age classes and 1:0.7 in the older age classes. Only 20.7% of females, 2–6 years old, showed signs of reproduction; placental scar and embryo number varied from one to seven (mean, 4.4) per individual. Survivorship theoretical curves indicated a fair survival of cubs and subadults, but a steep decline as wolves approached maximum life span (9 years old). Our data and other published data on food habits and genetic features of the wolf in central-eastern Italy suggest that, despite ongoing heavy human-induced losses, this predator has fully recovered in the last 30 years from the brink of extinction. Introduction About 47% of the European population of grey wolves Canis lupus Linnaeus, 1758 (excluding those of the former Soviet Union) occurs in southern Europe (Schr¨oder & Promberger, 1993). Wolf populations here are locally frag- mented, sometimes comprising less than 500 individuals. In the Mediterranean area, the wolf is still seen as a nuisance, especially by shepherds and hunters; for example in the last few decades, intense illegal killing has occurred in Italy in spite of legal protection established in 1971 (Guberti & Francisci, 1991). Thus, the recent recovery of the wolf in southern Europe (e.g. Route & Aylsworth, 1999; Boitani, 2003) may not yet have removed the risk of local extinctions in areas of recent recolonization. The main conservation problem lies with predation on domestic ungulates, which leads to extensive killing of wolves. The reintroduction of large wild herbivores has been advocated as a means to reduce attacks on livestock, but predation on the latter may remain high if domestic un- gulates are locally abundant. A review of 15 studies (Meriggi & Lovari, 1996) on the food habits of the wolf in southern Europe has shown that ungulates are the main diet compo- nent overall. A significant inverse correlation was found between the absolute occurrence (%) of wild and domestic ungulates in the diet. Apparently, the presence of several wild ungulate species is necessary to reduce predation on livestock. Surprisingly little information is available on wolf mor- tality, especially from environmental conditions comparable to those in southern Europe (see Fuller, Mech & Cochrane, 2003, for a review). A primary source of wolf mortality is interactions with humans. Wolves tend to survive where human density is low and the density of roads Journal of Zoology 272 (2007) 117–124 c  2007 The Authors. Journal compilation c  2007 The Zoological Society of London 117 Journal of Zoology. Print ISSN 0952-8369