empres watch VOL 28 May 2013 EMPRES-LIVESTOCK@fao.org | www.fao.org/ag/empres.html African swine fever in the Russian Federation: Risk factors for Europe and beyond. Contributors: Sergei Khomenko a , Daniel Beltrán-Alcrudo a , Andriy Rozstanlnyy a , Andrey Gogin b , Denis Kolbasov b , Julio Pinto a , Juan Lubroth a , Vincent Martin a a Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) b All-Russian Scientific Research Institute of Veterinary Virology and Microbiology (Pokrov, Russian Federation) Introduction A frican swine fever (ASF) is one of the most severe viral pig diseases. Some genotypes can cause up to 100 percent mortality in pigs and wild boar, such as the genotype II virus introduced into Georgia in 2007 (Chapman et al., 2011), which spread throughout the Caucasus (Beltran-Alcrudo et al., 2008) into the Islamic Republic of Iran (Rahimi et al., 2010), the Russian Federation (Beltran- Alcrudo et al., 2009) and, in July 2012, into Ukraine (Dietze et al., 2012). Without the availability of effective vaccines or treatment, outbreaks of ASF have been historically controlled in some countries by stamping out and through the implementation of strict movement bans of swine and their products. However, these measures are difficult to implement unless the veterinary services are well equipped, have reliable, trained personnel and sufficient and timely access to funds (for operations and adequate compensation). In addition, extensive culling implies economic losses and shortfalls in available food, particularly for the poorest farmers and households. One of the most important challenge is to get the outbreaks reported by the farmers. GIVEN THE WORRISOME DEVELOPMENTS IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, EUROPEAN COUNTRIES H AVE TO BE ALERT AND READY TO PREVENT AND TO REACT EFFECTIVELY TO ASF INTRODUCTIONS INTO THEIR TERRITORIES FOR MANY YEARS TO COME. In the Russian Federation, ASF has persisted since 2008 and continues to spread. The disease is endemic in most of the south and is on its way to becoming endemic in Tverskaya Oblast, not far from Moscow, where some of the highest pig and wild boar densities are found. Over 600 000 thousand pigs have died or have been culled from 2007 to mid-2012 due to ASF. Overall losses, including indirect ones, were estimated at around 30 billion RUB or 1 billion USD (Anonymous, 2012). Since 2008, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has repeatedly warned of the high risk of ASF spreading to neighboring countries and the likelihood that it will then establish in these newly infected areas (Beltran-Alcrudo et al., 2008 and 2009; FAO, 2010; Dietze et al., 2012). Such developments could lead to the expansion of ASF into Eastern Europe and beyond. The analysis of the situation in the Russian Federation and its production and marketing systems here presented, allows us to better understand the epidemiology and spread patterns of the disease in the region, and to identify critical areas for improved disease management. FAO, in collaboration with the All-Russian Scientific Research Institute of Veterinary Virology and Microbiology (National Reference Laboratory on ASF) in Pokrov, has prepared a comprehensive overview on the subject. This technical publication is based largely on those findings. The knowledge provided here will better inform veterinary services, animal health professionals, pig producers and decision-makers in Europe, and in other countries around the globe. Countries immediately bordering the Russian Federation, particularly Ukraine, Republic of Moldova, Kazakhstan and Latvia, are most vulnerable to ASF introduction and endemic establishment, largely because the biosecurity of their pig sector is predominantly low. The prevention of ASF spread into Ukraine is particularly critical for the whole pig production sector in Europe. Given the worrisome developments in the Russian Federation, European countries have to be alert. They must be ready to prevent and to react effectively to ASF introductions into their territories for many years to come. Contents Introduction 1 Overview on key production systems affected by ASF 2 ASF main epidemiological features 3 Challenges in ASF detection and control 7 Risk assessment for the region 9 Risk management options for at-risk countries 10 Conclusions 12 References 13